Local Digital Ad Growth Forecast Rises to 8.6%
Borrell Associates raised its 2026 forecast for digital local advertising as traditional media continues to decline.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Advertising
Borrell Associates upgraded its local advertising forecast, projecting 8.6% growth in local digital advertising for 2026, up from 4.5%. The firm also projects traditional local advertising will decline 3.8% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
Why it matters
Digital accounted for roughly 71% of local advertising in 2025, and the shift is reshaping revenue for traditional media companies across the United States. The forecast signals that local businesses and media outlets must continue adapting their advertising strategies to digital channels.
Borrell projects total US local advertising will reach $155.6 billion in 2027, with traditional media companies earning more than $18 billion in digital ad revenue in 2026. Digital represents 16% of the total digital ad market held by traditional media, a share the forecast does not explain further.
The players
Borrell Associates
Borrell Associates is a research and consulting firm that tracks and forecasts local advertising markets across the United States.
The details
The forecast covers 101 business categories across 3,143 US counties and draws on research from more than 1,700 documents. Online video is the fastest-growing local advertising category, with 13.5% growth projected for 2026, while radio earned about $2.3 billion in digital revenue in 2025, or 24.4% of its industry total.
Timeline
February 2026: RAB Digital Benchmarking Report released, produced by Borrell.
2026: Local digital growth forecast at 8.6%; traditional local ad decline of 3.8%.
2027: Digital growth projected at 6.7%; total local ad market projected at $155.6 billion.
2030: Digital projected to reach about 80% of local advertising.
November 11, 2026: Borrell presents findings in a free webinar at 11 a.m. ET.
Market Landscape
The upgrade extends Borrell's ongoing tracking of digital displacing traditional local media, with digital projected to claim 75% of local advertising by the end of 2027. The forecast also reflects a broader business landscape in which the US added about 1.6 million establishments between 2020 and 2025, even as the average private business shrank from 12.7 to 11.3 employees.
Local businesses weighing where to spend advertising budgets face a forecast showing digital channels growing while traditional options shrink. Advertisers and media buyers may need to reassess placement strategies as digital claims a larger share of local ad dollars.
The takeaway
Local advertisers should track where audiences are spending time, since digital's rising share suggests budgets will keep moving toward online channels. Reviewing a current media mix against these trends can help identify where spending is falling behind.
What happens next
Borrell Associates will present its findings in a free webinar on November 11, 2026, at 11 a.m. ET.
Further reading
Explore more on the Advertising industry and how local digital spending is changing.
