Ageing Population Pressures South Africa's Public Finances

Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo warned that an ageing population will place growing strain on government finances.

Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Financial Planning

Ageing Population Pressures South Africa's Public Finances

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Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo warned that South Africa's ageing population will place growing pressure on public finances. A report by the Inclusive Society Institute and Nedbank, launched on a Friday, found the country's overall longevity-inclusive risk level to be between medium and high.

Why it matters

The old-age dependency ratio rose from 8 in 2011 to 10 in 2022, meaning fewer working-age adults are supporting a growing number of older people. Longevity increases retirement benefit and elder care costs, adding strain to a economy already growing slowly.

The old-age dependency ratio rose from 8 in 2011 to 10 in 2022, meaning there were 10 older people per 100 working-age adults in 2022. The report identified a significant risk of additional government expenditure pressure over a 30-year horizon, but the extraction does not quantify the expected fiscal cost.

The players

David Masondo

Deputy Finance Minister of South Africa, who warned that the ageing population will pressure public finances.

Inclusive Society Institute

A South African policy research organisation that co-compiled the report on longevity and fiscal sustainability.

Nedbank

A major South African commercial bank that co-compiled the longevity report with the Inclusive Society Institute.

The details

Masondo's warning draws on the Impact of Longevity on Fiscal Sustainability in South Africa report, compiled by the Inclusive Society Institute and Nedbank. The report links longer life expectancy to higher retirement payouts and elder care costs, while low economic growth limits the state's capacity to absorb them. Insurers and private pension managers have also raised concerns about the effect on retirement finances.

2011: Old-age dependency ratio stood at 8.
2022: Old-age dependency ratio reached 10.
13 November 2026: Report launched and Masondo delivered his speech.
2055: Population projected to reach around 80 million, with the 65-and-older share at about 9.0%.
End of the century: Population projected to reach 93.5 million.

Market Dynamics

The rise in the old-age dependency ratio from 8 in 2011 to 10 in 2022, as documented in the Impact of Longevity on Fiscal Sustainability in South Africa report, shows the demographic shift is already under way. Because growth in the ratio shifts resources from investment toward retiree support, it places South Africa's public finances under long-term strain.

Rising elder care costs and longer retirement periods mean households may need to plan for larger long-term savings needs. The pressure on government finances could affect the scale of public support available to retirees in the future.

The takeaway

Longer lives are placing sustained demands on both household savings and public budgets, so reviewing your retirement plan against longer life expectancy is a practical step. Planning early for elder care and extended retirement can reduce reliance on public support.