Wisconsin Winter Forecast to Run Warmer, Snowier-Less
NOAA and UW-Madison project a milder, below-average snowfall winter across the state this season.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Forecasts
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NOAA and UW-Madison forecast a strong El Niño pattern this winter, with Wisconsin temperatures expected to run warmer than average and snowfall below average.
Why it matters
Milder conditions could lower heating costs for Wisconsin households while putting pressure on businesses and attractions that depend on winter weather. Forecasters also note that fewer extremely cold days may let more ticks, wasps, and mosquitoes survive, potentially boosting insect populations next year.
The forecast is a seasonal outlook tied to a strong El Niño pattern, projecting warmer temperatures and below-average snowfall for Wisconsin. The specific size of the expected departures from normal has not been stated.
The players
NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a U.S. federal agency that issues national weather and climate forecasts, including seasonal outlooks.
UW-Madison
The University of Wisconsin-Madison is the state's flagship public university, whose researchers contribute to regional climate and weather forecasting.
The details
The forecast attributes the predicted mild winter to a strong El Niño pattern, with NOAA and UW-Madison issuing the outlook. Kewaunee County's Winter Park, which has leaned heavily on snowmaking equipment in recent years, has seen much of its recent snowfall arrive later in the season.
Timeline
This winter: forecast warmer, low-snowfall conditions across Wisconsin.
Spring and summer: potential rise in insect activity following the mild winter.
Next year: possible larger insect populations if milder winter conditions hold.
Seasonal Patterns
The forecast applies NOAA's El Niño-based seasonal outlook framework to Wisconsin, placing this winter within the pattern that drives Midwestern winter temperature and snowfall departures. Comparing it to prior El Niño winters would show whether the state's snowmaking-dependent attractions face a recurring challenge.
Homeowners may see lower heating bills if the forecast holds, though the savings depend on how the winter actually unfolds. Residents and property owners should watch for shifts in tick, wasp, and mosquito activity in the coming spring and summer.
The takeaway
Milder winters can cut heating costs but may also shift wildlife and business outcomes in ways that are easy to overlook. Tracking seasonal forecasts can help households and local operators plan ahead for both.
Further reading
For the broader outlook on what seasonal patterns mean for the state, explore Forecasts coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Door County Daily News.
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