Strong El Niño Could Raise PNW Sea Levels
Washington Sea Grant expects El Niño to push Pacific Northwest coastal waters up 6 to 12 inches this winter.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Current Conditions
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A strong El Niño is projected to raise sea levels along the Pacific Northwest coast by 6 to 12 inches this winter, according to Washington Sea Grant. El Niño events occur every two to seven years and can be stronger than average this season.
Why it matters
When El Niño coincides with winter storms and king tides, combined water levels can increase the chance that low-lying shoreline properties flood. Climate change is also permanently raising the baseline sea level, which amplifies these temporary rises for Washington's coastal communities.
The projection is based on forecasts that this winter's El Niño may be stronger than average and could break previous records, with sea levels along the Pacific Northwest coast expected to rise 6 to 12 inches. Whether this translates into flooding depends on storm timing and king tides, which the forecast does not resolve.
The players
Washington Sea Grant
Washington Sea Grant is a university-based program that supports coastal research, education and outreach across Washington state.
Ian Miller
Ian Miller is a coastal hazards specialist with Washington Sea Grant who is presenting on El Niño effects at upcoming events in November 2026.
The details
During an El Niño, weakened trade winds let warm water move eastward, aided by slow-moving Kelvin waves, and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average. Waters in the Pacific Northwest can warm and rise during these events, and warmer water also disrupts salmon food sources during El Niño winters.
Timeline
November 10, 2026: Online panel on El Niño effects for coastal jurisdictions, 11 a.m. to noon.
November 19, 2026: Coupeville Recreation Hall presentation on sea level rise and El Niño, 6 to 8 p.m.
November through February: King tide period when El Niño and storms can combine to raise water levels.
Winter 2026-27: Projected strong El Niño expected to raise Pacific Northwest sea levels 6 to 12 inches.
Seasonal Patterns
El Niño events recur every two to seven years, so this winter's projected strong event places Washington's coast within a recognizable cycle rather than an isolated anomaly. Climate change layered on top of that cycle is steadily lifting the baseline sea level, which makes each recurring El Niño more consequential for coastal flooding than in past decades.
Residents of low-lying shoreline properties should watch for flood risk during winter storms and king tides from November through February, when El Niño-driven water levels are most likely to combine with high tides. Attending the November 19 Coupeville session or the November 10 online panel can help coastal property owners understand local exposure before the season begins.
The takeaway
Because sea level rise from El Niño does not automatically mean flooding, the practical step is to track king tide forecasts and storm timing this winter. Climate change is steadily raising the baseline, so coastal planning now matters more than it did in earlier El Niño seasons.
What happens next
Coupeville will host a 6 to 8 p.m. sea level rise and El Niño presentation on November 19, 2026, with reservations required, and an online panel runs 11 a.m. to noon on November 10, 2026.
Further reading
For ongoing updates on coastal flooding risk, see Current Conditions in our Washington coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Whidbey News-Times.
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