El Niño Could Bring Above-Normal Texas Rain
Forecasters project a very strong El Niño to ease a multi-year drought across much of the state this season.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Forecasts
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NOAA projects a very strong El Niño through December, which forecasters say could bring above-normal rainfall to Texas after almost six years of drought in the Southwest and Southern Plains. Texas could see 25% to 49% more rainfall than average between September and November.
Why it matters
Brief heavy rain runs off rather than replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, so sustained, saturating rainfall is needed to bring meaningful drought relief. More than half of Texas is projected to see drought improvement or removal in the coming season.
NOAA gives roughly an 80% chance of a very strong El Niño and roughly a 97% chance of a strong El Niño lingering through February, with Texas rainfall projected 25% to 49% above average from September to November. Whether this rainfall will be sufficient to end a nearly six-year drought across the Southwest and Southern Plains remains unresolved.
The players
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The U.S. federal agency responsible for weather, climate, and ocean forecasting, whose seasonal outlooks track the development and strength of El Niño events.
The details
Warmer ocean temperatures push the subtropical jet stream south, which can draw tropical activity from the East Pacific toward Texas and drag storms across the state through next spring. In San Antonio, El Niño often brings 2 to 3 more inches of winter rain than average, while the extended-range forecast for North and Central Texas favors slightly below-normal precipitation for the rest of November.
Timeline
September through November 2026: Texas could see 25% to 49% above-average rainfall.
Through December 2026: NOAA projects a very strong El Niño.
Through February 2027: NOAA projects a strong El Niño lingering.
Through spring 2027: Storms are expected to cross Texas to provide drought relief.
Seasonal Patterns
One of the worst prolonged droughts in Texas history occurred in the 1950s, when three El Niño years still delivered below-average rainfall, though those events were weaker than the current phenomenon. Forecasters expect the stronger El Niño now developing to reverse that pattern for much of the state.
Texas residents in drought-affected areas should monitor local water restrictions, as brief heavy storms may not immediately lift reservoir levels. Keep an eye on official forecasts through the winter, since rainfall may trend below normal through the new year and into January.
The takeaway
A strong El Niño can shift Texas rainfall meaningfully, but drought relief depends on slow, soaking rain that sinks into soil and aquifers rather than running off. Readers should expect uneven results across the state and watch for updates as the season unfolds.
Further reading
For more on what seasonal outlooks can and cannot predict, see Forecasts in our weather coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by MySA.
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