Texas Pecan Crop Grows Larger Than Last Year

An October forecast puts Texas pecan output at 44.5 million pounds, up from 41.6 million pounds last year.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Agriculture

Pecan tree with a shaker clamp on its trunk in a flat tilled orchard at golden hour, rows of trees receding across Texas plains. — Texas pecan growers expect a 44.5 million pound crop this season, up from 41.6 million pounds last year, USDA forecast shows. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Texas pecan growers are heading for a larger harvest than last year, according to an October production forecast of 44.5 million pounds versus 41.6 million pounds in the prior season. Disease and pest pressure, however, reduced kernel quality in the crop.

Why it matters

A wetter spring raised disease reports in Texas orchards, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs plus extra spraying are squeezing grower margins even as output increases. Early harvests from Georgia, Louisiana, and East Texas will help set prices for the rest of the season.

The October forecast projects Texas output at 44.5 million pounds, a rise from 41.6 million pounds last year and from a September estimate of 39 million pounds. Final quality remains unresolved, as downy spot, powdery mildew, and above-normal pecan nut casebearer pressure could reduce kernel quality.

The players

Monte Nesbitt

Monte Nesbitt is a Texas pecan industry figure who provided the September estimate of 39 million pounds for the state's crop.

The details

Pecan orchards are harvested with shakers, and growers roll and irrigate tilled orchard floors to pack them into a flat crust first. Excess water can crack that crust, leaving pecans that slip into the cracks behind after harvest.

August into September: Trees demand the most water during the kernel-fill stage.
Late March: Pecan trees budded this season.
September: Monte Nesbitt estimated Texas output at 39 million pounds.
October: The production forecast raised Texas output to 44.5 million pounds.

Market Landscape

The upward revision from Nesbitt's September estimate of 39 million pounds to the 44.5 million pound October forecast shows how Texas output is being refined through the season. Georgia's forecast of 110 million pounds, slightly below last year's 111.5 million, means the U.S. total of 301.3 million pounds depends heavily on Texas gains.

Higher Texas output could ease supply for buyers of pecans and pecan products if prices hold. Rising fuel and fertilizer costs and extra spraying are pressuring growers, which may affect what consumers pay over time.

The takeaway

Watch the early harvests out of Georgia, Louisiana, and East Texas, since they are likely to signal where prices settle for the season. Shoppers buying pecans this season may see more supply, but quality could vary depending on disease exposure in each orchard.