Long-Range Outlook Projects Mild Thanksgiving in NYC
AccuWeather's early forecast points to a high near 47 degrees for New York City on Thanksgiving, Nov. 26, though the National Weather Service has not yet issued a holiday forecast.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Forecasts
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Will New York City's Thanksgiving Day high reach 47 degrees, per the National Weather Service?
AccuWeather has issued an early long-range outlook projecting a high near 47 degrees and a low near 40 in New York City on Thanksgiving, Thursday, Nov. 26. The National Weather Service's detailed forecast for the city currently extends only through Nov. 16.
Why it matters
Holiday travel plans and the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade depend on conditions that are still more than two weeks away, and long-range outlooks carry more uncertainty than short-range forecasts. Parade balloons cannot fly in strong winds, so the eventual forecast will matter for the event.
The projection is a long-range AccuWeather outlook, sitting about 5 degrees below the city's average November high of 52 degrees. Whether the parade's balloons can fly will depend on sustained winds staying below 23 mph and gusts below 34 mph, and those conditions are not yet forecast.
The players
AccuWeather
AccuWeather is a private weather forecasting company known for its long-range and commercial weather outlooks.
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service is the U.S. federal agency responsible for issuing official weather forecasts and warnings.
Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade
The Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade is an annual New York City event featuring giant balloons, and its operations depend on wind limits.
The details
AccuWeather's outlook is based on long-range forecasting and is less precise than a short-range forecast. The Farmers' Almanac, which covers the Northeast from Nov. 23 through Thanksgiving, favors cool, mainly fair weather and says flurries are possible in northern areas and at higher elevations.
Timeline
Nov. 16, 2026: End date of the National Weather Service's current detailed New York City forecast.
Nov. 23, 2026: Farmers' Almanac cool, mainly fair weather outlook for the Northeast begins.
Nov. 26, 2026: Thanksgiving Day and the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.
Seasonal Patterns
The projected 47-degree high sits between Central Park's Thanksgiving extremes of 26 degrees in 1901 and 69 degrees in 1933. It also falls below the city's average November high of 52 degrees, consistent with a cooler-than-average holiday outlook.
Travelers and parade-goers should check the National Weather Service forecast closer to Thanksgiving, since long-range outlooks can change significantly. If sustained winds exceed 23 mph or gusts exceed 34 mph, balloon operations may be affected.
The takeaway
Long-range outlooks offer a general sense of what to expect, but holiday plans should be checked against the National Weather Service forecast as the date gets closer. The projected mild temperatures do not guarantee calm wind conditions for the parade.
What happens next
The National Weather Service's detailed New York City forecast is expected to be extended as Thanksgiving approaches, and parade-day conditions will become clearer in the days before Nov. 26.
Further reading
For the latest outlooks on the holiday, browse Forecasts coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Journal News.
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Will New York City's Thanksgiving Day high reach 47 degrees, per the National Weather Service?
