Central Park Could See 18-28 Inches of Snow
First Alert Weather's seasonal forecast ties the outlook to a strong El Niño pattern bringing Pacific air masses into the New York area.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Forecasts
First Alert Weather Team forecasts 18 to 28 inches of snow for Central Park this winter, driven by a strong El Niño bringing Pacific air masses into the New York area. New York City averages 29.8 inches of snow per season.
Why it matters
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed to 2.5 degrees above the El Niño threshold, and the current event is five times the strength that classifies as a normal El Niño. El Niño typically brings warmer and wetter than normal weather locally, which shapes how much of the season's precipitation falls as snow.
The forecast range of 18-28 inches sits below the city's 29.8-inch seasonal average, while the 2015-2016 season delivered 32.8 inches in Central Park, including a record 27.5-inch single-storm snowfall in January 2016. Whether this season tracks toward the high or low end of the range remains unknown.
The players
First Alert Weather
First Alert Weather is a television and digital weather service whose team issued the seasonal snowfall forecast for Central Park.
Rutgers University
Rutgers University is a public research university in New Jersey whose climatologist was quoted on the regional snow outlook.
The details
Pacific Ocean storms are expected to run across the United States into the New York area as the air mass intrusion strengthens, and snowstorms become possible only when cold air is in place alongside increased storm activity. Southern New Jersey is also expected to see more snow as the super El Niño delivers a stronger signal for snow.
Timeline
January 2016: New York City recorded its biggest snowfall on record at 27.5 inches.
2015-2016 season: 32.8 inches of snow fell in Central Park.
1997-1998 winter: Just 5.5 inches of snow fell during a super El Niño winter.
This winter (2026-2027): First Alert Weather forecasts 18-28 inches of snow in Central Park.
Seasonal Patterns
The forecast follows the pattern set during the 2015-2016 season, when a strong El Niño produced 32.8 inches of snow in Central Park, nearly matching the city's 29.8-inch average. This winter's projected 18-28 inches places it below that recent benchmark, though the outlook remains a seasonal range rather than a fixed total.
Residents preparing for a snowier-than-average winter can plan for hazardous driving and shoveling by stocking supplies before storms arrive. Watch for updated National Weather Service advisories as individual snow events approach.
The takeaway
A seasonal forecast shows a likely range of snowfall, not a precise total, so monitoring short-range updates closer to each storm gives the clearest picture of what to expect. Residents should treat the 18-28 inch outlook as a planning guide for the winter ahead.
Further reading
For related outlooks, see the Forecasts section covering New York City's winter weather.
