Wall Street Bonuses Set to Surge in 2026
Johnson Associates projects equity sales, trading and underwriting bonuses to rise 20 to 30% or more over 2025 levels.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Corporate Finance
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Compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates projects Wall Street bonuses for 2026 to climb significantly over 2025, with equity sales, trading and underwriting bankers potentially seeing gains of 20 to 30% or more. Private equity bonuses could range from flat to up 7.5%, while private credit bonuses could be flat or fall by as much as 7.5%.
Why it matters
The projections mark the third consecutive year bonuses have been significantly higher than the prior year, with trading gains tied to market volatility. The outlook carries implications for New York state and city budgets, which depend on bonus payouts.
Johnson Associates' third-quarter projections put equity sales, trading and underwriting bonus growth at 20 to 30% or more over 2025, while private equity ranges from zero to 7.5% growth and private credit from flat to a 7.5% decline. Final figures depend on year-end market conditions that the projections do not account for.
The players
Johnson Associates
A compensation consulting firm that has produced Wall Street bonus projections for 25 years.
Alan Johnson
Managing director of Johnson Associates who oversees the firm's compensation projections.
The details
Johnson Associates, which has produced bonus projections for 25 years, based its estimates on public filings and conversations with clients. The firm attributed trading bonus gains partly to a surge in market volatility, while the private credit sector faced pressure after rapid expansion and some questionable loans.
Timeline
2025: baseline year for comparing 2026 bonus projections
Third quarter 2026: Johnson Associates released its projections
2027: bonuses may be flat to slightly down
Market Dynamics
The 2026 projection extends a third consecutive year of significantly higher Wall Street bonuses, tracked by Johnson Associates' long-running annual series. The firm now expects a flat to slightly down 2027 as geopolitical turmoil, inflation and higher interest rates weigh on the industry.
For New York state and city budgets, bonus payouts shape tax revenue that funds public services. Individual investors may watch these projections for signals about the health of Wall Street firms and the financial sector's direction.
The takeaway
Bonus growth in volatile markets can shift quickly, so the projected 2027 slowdown is worth watching alongside geopolitical and interest-rate developments. Tracking these forecasts over time helps show whether the recent run of higher payouts holds.
Further reading
For more on the deal and banking side of this story, see Corporate Finance coverage.
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