Holiday Spending Set to Rise 4.2% This Season

Why it matters

November and December are vital months for retailers, and consumers are feeling the pinch of high gas prices and economic uncertainty. Shoppers are shopping early and online while looking for value, which will shape how retailers compete for sales.

The details

Shoppers are planning early and looking for value, with sales and promotions expected to play an important role. Consumers continued spending between July and September despite high prices for groceries and gasoline, and more than half of surveyed holiday shoppers say the economy will shape their plans.

Timeline

1. July through September: U.S. economy grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate.

2. November and December: Key months for holiday retail sales.

Market Dynamics

The National Retail Federation's 4.2 percent holiday growth projection continues its annual forecasting series, which retailers use to gauge consumer demand. The projection arrives as consumers balance high gas and grocery prices against a moderately growing economy, a tension that shapes seasonal retail planning.

The takeaway

Planning early and comparing promotions can help shoppers stretch holiday budgets when prices for essentials remain high. Tracking how gas and grocery costs move through the season will show how much room there is for discretionary gifts.

Further reading

For more on how households are managing everyday costs, explore Spending coverage.