USDA Raises Global Wheat Production Forecast
The November report lifted 2026-27 world wheat output and ending stocks while trimming Russian and Ukrainian export estimates.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Agriculture
Live Poll
Do you expect your grocery bills to rise over the next year?
The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production and ending stocks in 2026-27, with Argentina and Australia each raised by 1.5 million tonnes. The agency cut its Russian and Ukrainian wheat export forecasts by 1 million tonnes each.
Why it matters
Improved crop prospects in several major exporting countries lifted the global wheat outlook, while continued Black Sea shipping disruption restricted Russian and Ukrainian exports. Together these shape supply expectations for importing nations.
The USDA's revised Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts of 39 million and 11.5 million tonnes, each cut by 1 million tonnes, were published in the November report. Overall global wheat totals and the full scale of the ending-stocks change were not specified in the source.
The players
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
The USDA is the federal agency that publishes the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the monthly report that sets global benchmarks for crop production and trade forecasts.
The details
The USDA's November WASDE report, published on 10 November 2026, raised estimates for Kazakhstan and Ukraine and lifted Argentina and Australia wheat crops by 1.5 million tonnes each. The agency also reduced US maize production after cutting its national yield estimate, lowered projected US maize ending stocks, and raised its forecast for US soya bean exports while soya bean stocks fell. London November 2026 feed wheat futures closed at £191.75/t on 10 November, up £1.75/t on the day.
Timeline
10 November 2026: USDA published the November WASDE report; grain futures recovered.
10 December 2026: The next WASDE report is scheduled.
Market Landscape
The November WASDE update revises the 2026-27 wheat, maize and soya bean balance sheets, continuing the monthly reassessment that markets use to price grain and oilseed supply. Shifts in Black Sea export estimates alter the competitive position of Russian and Ukrainian wheat against Argentine and Australian supplies.
Revised export and stock estimates can affect the prices that flour millers, feed producers and food companies pay for grain. Changes in futures prices, such as the London feed wheat move to £191.75/t, feed into the cost of bread, animal feed and related goods.
The takeaway
Monthly USDA revisions can shift global grain supply expectations quickly, so tracking the next report helps readers anticipate changes in wheat, maize and soya bean prices.
What happens next
The next WASDE report, which will update these wheat, maize and soya bean estimates, is scheduled for 10 December 2026.
Further reading
For more on how crop forecasts move commodity markets, explore Agriculture coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Farmers Weekly.
Live Poll
Do you expect your grocery bills to rise over the next year?
