Analysts Release Conflicting Holiday Spending Forecasts
Research firms offer mixed projections on 2026 holiday retail outlook amid shifting consumer behaviors and inflation concerns.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Spending
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Conflicting retail spending forecasts for the 2026 holiday season highlight a landscape where consumers are increasingly value-conscious and debt-burdened. While some firms project a decline in holiday expenditures, others expect total sales to exceed $1 trillion.
Why it matters
The divergence in expert outlooks reflects the strain on household budgets caused by the rising cost of essentials. With nearly half of consumers worried about gift affordability, holiday spending is increasingly driven by a push to find value rather than purely celebratory consumption.
Deloitte expects household spending to reach $1,654, a 4% increase, while the National Retail Federation projects total industry sales to rise 4.2% to over $1 trillion. Conversely, Simon-Kucher forecasts a 5.5% year-over-year spending decline.
The players
Circana
Circana is a market research firm that provides data and predictive insights on consumer behavior and retail trends.
Simon-Kucher
Simon-Kucher is a global strategy and marketing consulting firm that specializes in pricing and revenue growth.
Deloitte
Deloitte is a global professional services network that conducts extensive annual research into consumer shopping habits and economic sentiment.
National Retail Federation
The National Retail Federation is the worlds largest retail trade association representing retailers and their supply chain partners.
The details
Shoppers are increasingly turning away from advertised discounts, with only 22% of consumers viewing them as true savings compared to 46% last year. As nearly 80% of buyers expect higher prices, more than 60% are shopping earlier than in previous years to manage their budgets.
Timeline
Average holiday budgets were $796 in 2025.
28% of holiday budgets are slated to be spent by the end of October 2026.
The primary holiday sales period takes place throughout November and December 2026.
Market Dynamics
The current split in market forecasts follows the long-term methodology established by the National Retail Federation's holiday sales projections. These mixed outlooks represent a divergence from historical stability as structural changes in inflation and consumer debt redefine retail cycles.
Retailers and investors should anticipate tighter profit margins if shoppers continue to prioritize essentials over discretionary gift spending. Portfolio allocations may face volatility as consumer debt and price skepticism influence quarterly earnings performance for major retail chains.
The takeaway
Consumers are increasingly spreading out holiday costs to account for the sustained impact of inflation on household essentials. Tracking holiday budgets early in the season may help households manage debt accumulation and navigate unpredictable retail pricing.
Further reading
For more context on how price changes impact the economy, visit Spending.
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Do you feel this is a good time to increase your personal holiday spending budget?
