Holiday Spending Expectations Have Shifted

Consumers plan to spend an average of $779 on holiday purchases this year, down from $796 in 2025.

Updated on Oct. 13, 2026 in Spending

Holiday Spending Expectations Have Shifted

Live Poll

Do you plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year due to current economic conditions?

A new Circana study shows that U.S. consumers expect to spend an average of $779 during the 2026 holiday season. This marks a slight decrease from the $796 average reported during the 2025 holiday period.

Why it matters

Shoppers are currently navigating tight budget pressures while attempting to maintain their traditional holiday celebrations. The survey results reflect a delicate balance between fiscal caution and the persistent consumer desire to participate in seasonal gift-giving.

The study surveyed 3,534 U.S. consumers to assess their upcoming holiday budgets. While more than 20% of respondents plan to spend over $1,000, total fourth-quarter spending is projected to fluctuate between a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase from last year.

The players

Circana

Circana is an analytics and market research firm that provides consumer behavior insights to businesses and industries.

The details

Researchers analyzed consumer sentiment to gauge how economic constraints are impacting seasonal shopping habits. Despite the lower average spend, a notable portion of the population remains committed to high-expenditure shopping levels.

2025 served as the baseline year for holiday spending comparisons.
2026 is the year the holiday purchase intentions study was conducted.
Q4 2026 represents the official period for the projected holiday spending.

Market Dynamics

These findings update the baseline established by the 2025 holiday season data to track ongoing shifts in consumer purchasing power. This data helps contextualize how current economic cycles and budget pressures are influencing long-term retail spending habits across the nation.

The projected range of 1% decline to 2.5% growth suggests a cautious retail environment that could impact stock performance for major department stores and e-commerce platforms. Retail investors should monitor upcoming Q4 earnings guidance to see how these spending intentions translate into actual corporate revenue.

The takeaway

Consumers are opting for more conservative spending patterns this year as they balance seasonal enthusiasm with financial constraints. Households may want to set firm gift budgets early to ensure their seasonal spending remains aligned with their long-term financial goals.