US Holiday Sales to Grow 4.2 Percent in 2026

The National Retail Federation anticipates continued holiday spending growth across the country.

Updated on Oct. 15, 2026 in Spending

Bold vector editorial illustration of a gift box and an evergreen branch, symbolizing holiday retail growth projections. — The National Retail Federation projects a 4.2 percent increase in U.S. holiday sales for 2026, signaling continued consumer resilience in the retail sector. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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The National Retail Federation projects that holiday sales in the United States will increase by 4.2 percent in 2026. This forecast highlights an expectation for continued consumer spending throughout the upcoming holiday season.

Why it matters

The forecast suggests that consumers remain committed to holiday traditions while balancing budget awareness. This projected growth indicates the continued importance of the retail sector in the broader national economy.

The National Retail Federation projects a 4.2 percent growth rate for 2026 holiday sales. This figure represents the anticipated expansion compared to previous annual holiday cycles.

The players

National Retail Federation

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association representing retailers in the United States and more than 45 countries.

The details

Consumers are expected to prioritize the holiday season while maintaining careful budget awareness throughout the year. The projection accounts for broader retail trends expected to influence the United States market throughout the 2026 holiday timeframe.

The projected growth for holiday sales is centered on the year 2026.

Market Dynamics

This forecast updates the historical annual holiday spending growth figures published by the National Retail Federation. It illustrates how retail entities calibrate their expectations against current macroeconomic conditions.

Retail investors should consider these growth projections when evaluating positions in consumer discretionary stocks. The data provides a baseline for understanding expected shifts in national retail volume during the busiest shopping months.

The takeaway

Retailers and analysts should monitor monthly consumer sentiment reports to see if spending tracks with this annual projection. Staying alert to shifts in budget awareness will help stakeholders adjust their strategies throughout the year.