Leonard Unseats Carey in Ohio's 15th
Democrat Don Leonard defeats Republican Rep. Mike Carey, flipping a Columbus-area House seat Republicans held for more than a decade.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Elections
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Democrat Don Leonard is projected to win Ohio's 15th Congressional District, defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Carey. The Columbus-area seat had been held by Republicans for more than a decade.
Why it matters
The result gives Democrats a House seat that had been in Republican hands for years as they work to widen the battlefield beyond traditional swing districts. It shows voter frustration over the cost of living can move races considered likely Republican.
Leonard leads Carey by almost 8 percentage points with 91 percent of ballots counted, after Carey won reelection by roughly 13 points in 2024. The remaining ballots had not been counted at the time of the projection, so the final margin remains unconfirmed.
The players
Don Leonard
Leonard is an Ohio State University professor of city and regional planning who served in the Peace Corps in South America and earned a doctorate in government from Cornell University.
Mike Carey
Carey is a former coal lobbyist who first won the Ohio 15th District seat in a 2021 special election and held it through reelection.
Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ is a national election forecasting and results organization that rated the district 'likely Republican' before Election Day and projected Leonard as the winner.
The details
Leonard, an Ohio State University professor of city and regional planning, made affordability and access to healthcare central to his campaign. He won the Democratic nomination in May over former state Rep. Adam Miller before defeating Carey in the general election.
Timeline
2021: Carey first won the seat in a special election.
2024: Carey won reelection by roughly 13 points.
May 2026: Leonard won the Democratic nomination over Adam Miller.
November 3, 2026: Election Day; Leonard projected winner.
Political Context
The seat's Republican hold of more than a decade and its 'likely Republican' rating made the flip unexpected by pre-election forecasts. Democrats had targeted Columbus-area districts as they sought to expand the House battlefield beyond traditional swing seats.
The result changes which party represents Columbus-area voters in the House, affecting federal policy on the cost of living and healthcare that Leonard campaigned on. Residents of the district will be represented by a new member starting in the next Congress.
The takeaway
Voter frustration over costs can carry a challenger past a seat that looked safe on paper, and Ohio's 15th District shows how quickly a long-held House seat can change hands. Readers tracking the House majority should watch whether similar districts follow the same pattern as remaining votes are counted.
Further reading
For more on how House seats are contested nationwide, see the Elections section.
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