Democrats Lead Key Senate Races in Final Poll
The last New York Times/Siena Senate poll before Tuesday's midterms shows Democratic candidates ahead in several closely watched states.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Elections
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The latest New York Times/Siena poll, released Sunday, November 1, 2026, shows Democratic Senate candidates leading in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. Analysts reacted with surprise on social media to the results ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
Why it matters
The poll is the final Senate survey before voters head to the polls, offering a last reading of the competitive races across the country. Its results point to where Senate control could be decided in the midterms.
The poll gives Abdul El-Sayed an 11-point edge over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan and Josh Turek a one-point lead over Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) in Iowa. Margins this narrow in Iowa leave the race open to change before polls close on Tuesday.
The players
New York Times/Siena
The New York Times and Siena College partnered on the poll, which is widely cited as a benchmark for national and state political surveys.
Abdul El-Sayed
El-Sayed is a Democratic candidate in the Michigan Senate race who holds an 11-point lead in the poll.
Mike Rogers
Rogers is the Republican candidate in the Michigan Senate race, trailing El-Sayed in the poll and receiving an endorsement from Democrat Haley Stevens.
The details
Democratic candidates led in seven states in the poll, including Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. In Michigan, Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, a development that adds a notable twist to the race.
Timeline
Sunday, November 1, 2026: Latest New York Times/Siena Senate poll released and analysts react on social media
Tuesday, November 3, 2026: Midterm elections held
Political Context
The poll's Democratic leads across seven states, including Texas, Ohio, and Kansas, extend the Senate battleground beyond the traditional map. Republican Mike Rogers's Michigan race is complicated by Democrat Haley Stevens's endorsement of him.
The results will determine which party controls the Senate and therefore which legislation and nominations move through the chamber. Voters in the seven states with close races will see their Senate representation decided this week.
The takeaway
Close margins in several states mean the final outcome may hinge on a small number of votes, so voters should check results after polls close on Tuesday.
What happens next
Results of the Senate races will be known after polls close on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Further reading
Follow the latest developments in the Elections section for more coverage of the midterm races.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Raw Story.
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