Wisevoter
U.S.

Kornacki Eyes Tight House Races in Montana, Washington

NBC's Steve Kornacki analyzes two House districts that backed Donald Trump in 2024 but also sided with Democrats in some down-ballot races.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of a tall ballot-box silhouette centered in navy and cream, with a single red accent, evoking a close House race.
Democrat Sam Forstag and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez face Republican challengers in two House districts that backed Donald Trump in 2024, according to NBC's Steve Kornacki. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Do you think the country is heading in the right direction?

NBC's Steve Kornacki analyzed the competitive House races in Montana's 1st district and Washington's 3rd district on NonStop Local's Pulse program with host Bradley Warren. Both districts voted for Donald Trump in 2024, though each also sided with Democrats in some down-ballot contests.

Why it matters

The analysis highlights how Democratic candidates in Republican-leaning districts may need to outperform in specific counties to compete in November 2026. Kornacki's county-level breakdown shows where those gains would have to come from.

Kornacki's analysis cites a Harris vote share under 30 percent in Flathead County and a Trump margin narrowing from four to three points in Washington's 3rd district between 2020 and 2024. Whether Democrats can reach the projected targets in Flathead, Lake and Glacier counties remains unresolved.

The players

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki is an NBC News national correspondent known for his county-by-county election map analysis.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is the Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 3rd district, who won re-election in 2024.

Jon Tester

Jon Tester is a former Democratic U.S. Senator from Montana who lost his 2024 re-election bid.

The details

Kornacki examined Montana's 1st district, where Democrat Sam Forstag is running against Republican Aaron Flint, and Washington's 3rd district, where Republican John Braun is challenging incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. He noted that Jon Tester carried Montana's 1st district in his failed 2024 Senate re-election bid, and that Forstag would need to win or come close in Lake County and reach the high 60s percent in Glacier County.

Timeline

  1. 2024: Trump carried both districts, Tester lost his Senate race and Gluesenkamp Perez won re-election.

  2. November 2, 2026: Kornacki's analysis was published as the House races were expected to be contested.

  3. Election night 2026: NBC coverage of the election results is planned.

Political Context

Tester carried Montana's 1st district in his 2024 loss, showing Democrats have won the district at the margin even as Republicans dominate its Republican-leaning counties. Kornacki's projections for Forstag rest on whether Democrats can repeat that county-level performance in 2026.

For voters in these districts, the November 2026 House contests will determine which candidate represents them in Congress. The county-level margins Kornacki described show where turnout and vote share could decide the outcome.

The takeaway

Congressional races in districts that split between parties can hinge on a few counties, so local turnout matters as much as statewide trends. Watching county-level results is the clearest way to see whether a candidate is on track.

Further reading

Explore more in Elections coverage of the nation's competitive House contests.

Live Poll

Do you think the country is heading in the right direction?