Holiday Sales to Top $1 Trillion Amid Rising Debt

Consumers face record-high unsecured debt levels as holiday spending projections for 2026 reach a significant new milestone.

Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Spending

Isometric editorial illustration of a lone metal shopping cart wheel half-submerged in a stylized geometric snowdrift, representing rising consumer debt trends. — Holiday retail spending is projected to surpass $1 trillion in late 2026, even as consumer unsecured debt reaches a 13-year peak. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Holiday sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion in Q4 2026 as households continue to drive spending. However, the reliance on credit has pushed unsecured debt among credit counseling clients to a 13-year high.

Why it matters

Inflation and robust spending from upper-income households are sustaining high sales figures, yet many consumers are increasingly leaning on credit to fund holiday purchases.

Credit counseling enrollment rose 9.5% during 2026, while total client debt under management by MMI reached $1 billion. Clients now carry an average of $40,200 in unsecured debt.

The players

MMI

MMI is a credit counseling organization that provides financial guidance and manages significant levels of consumer debt.

The details

Shoppers are increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence tools to identify coupon codes and compare prices to manage their holiday budgets. Despite these efforts, MMI reports that the current level of managed client debt is the highest recorded since 2013.

2013 marked the previous peak for client debt levels.
2026 saw a 9.5% year-to-date increase in credit counseling enrollment.

Market Dynamics

The current rise in consumer borrowing mirrors long-term cycles of debt accumulation that often follow periods of sustained inflation. This trajectory indicates a departure from recent years, as the 2026 figures finally surpass the high-water marks established in 2013.

Consumers managing high levels of unsecured debt should monitor interest rates closely as balances become more expensive to carry. Reviewing household budgets for holiday expenses may provide a necessary buffer against the current inflationary environment.

The takeaway

Using AI tools to hunt for deals is a practical way to combat inflation, but it does not offset the risk of high-interest debt. Prioritizing essential spending over credit-funded luxury items remains the most reliable strategy for long-term financial health.