Majority of Americans Oppose Political Wagering
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds broad opposition to using prediction markets for government and election betting.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Gambling
Live Poll
Do you support the use of prediction markets for betting on U.S. election outcomes?
A majority of U.S. adults oppose the use of prediction markets to wager on election results and government policy, according to a poll conducted from September 30 through October 5, 2026. Only 7 percent of respondents reported having participated in these platforms, which allow users to trade contracts based on real-world outcomes.
Why it matters
Lawmakers have expressed concerns that prediction markets could lead to insider trading, market manipulation, and a decline in public trust. Consequently, some have sought legislative measures to implement stricter limitations on the usage of these platforms.
A survey of 4,506 U.S. adults found that 75 percent view prediction markets as gambling, with 65 percent opposing wagers on military actions. Furthermore, 63 percent of respondents disapproved of betting on government policy decisions.
The players
Polymarket
This is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place wagers on the outcomes of future real-world events.
Kalshi
This is a regulated exchange that enables users to trade contracts based on the outcome of specific events, including political and economic developments.
United States Senate
This is the upper chamber of the United States Congress which has moved to prohibit its members and staff from utilizing prediction platforms.
The details
Three-quarters of respondents categorized betting on real-world events as gambling, while over 90 percent of both Democrats and Republicans deemed it inappropriate for Congress members to wager on political events. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi currently allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on event outcomes, prompting the U.S. Senate to bar its own members and staff from using them.
Timeline
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults from September 30 to October 5, 2026.
Culture Shift
The debate over prediction markets reflects a broader societal tension regarding the gamification of political and civil processes. This shift highlights a departure from traditional civic engagement as digital platforms increasingly intersect with high-stakes government decision-making.
These findings suggest a strong public preference for keeping financial speculation out of the legislative process, which may influence future voting behaviors. Residents should monitor local representatives' stances on prediction market legislation as the debate reaches higher levels of government.
The takeaway
Most Americans maintain a skeptical view of integrating financial wagering into the political process. Readers interested in the integrity of government institutions may want to follow upcoming legislative updates regarding how these platforms are regulated.
Further reading
Learn more about the evolving landscape of Gambling and its regulatory challenges.
Live Poll
Do you support the use of prediction markets for betting on U.S. election outcomes?
