Election Prediction Markets Met With Public Skepticism

A majority of Americans oppose election wagering, despite news outlets incorporating real-time price data into coverage.

Updated on Oct. 12, 2026 in Gambling

Election Prediction Markets Met With Public Skepticism

Live Poll

Do you believe prediction markets for election outcomes are appropriate to include in news coverage?

While major media outlets like CBS News have begun integrating real-time price data from prediction markets into their election reporting, public opinion remains largely against the practice. Data indicates that most Americans view these prediction-market contracts as a form of gambling.

Why it matters

Media companies are utilizing these platforms to condense complex poll results and news cycles into simplified probabilities for their audiences. However, this shift faces significant pushback from the public, who remain wary of wagering on political outcomes.

An Ipsos survey of 4,506 U.S. adults found that 75% classify prediction-market wagering as gambling. Furthermore, combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July.

The players

CBS News

This American commercial broadcast television network began integrating real-time prediction-market price data into its midterm election coverage.

Kalshi

This prediction market platform allows users to trade contracts on the outcomes of specific events, including election results.

Polymarket

This is a decentralized prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events.

Skydance

This media company completed its purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery in early October 2026.

The details

Prediction markets allow users to purchase contracts that pay $1 if a predicted event occurs and nothing if it does not. Current market structures are highly concentrated, with the top 1% of wallets accounting for 68% of trading volume on congressional markets and 80% of markets having fewer than 100 active participants.

March 2026: Traders sued Kalshi over an Iran-related market.
May 2026: Combined monthly trading volume reached $26 billion.
July 2026: Combined monthly trading volume reached $53 billion.
Sept. 30, 2026: CBS News added Kalshi prices to its coverage.
Oct. 6, 2026: Skydance completed its purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Culture Shift

The integration of prediction markets into mainstream news signals a shift where speculative wagering is increasingly treated as a credible analytical tool. This mirrors the broader trend of financialization in digital spaces, though it remains in tension with traditional journalistic standards.

The integration of these markets means consumers may encounter probability-based odds alongside traditional polling when following election news. Residents should note that participating in these markets involves significant financial risk and is widely considered a form of gambling.

The takeaway

Prediction markets are increasingly visible in mainstream media, but they remain speculative tools dominated by a small number of high-volume accounts. Readers should treat these probabilities as betting odds rather than as verified voter sentiment or traditional election polling.

What happens next

Trading volume is expected to rise as the midterm elections approach, with projections suggesting even higher activity for the 2028 presidential cycle.