Global Pepper Output Dips as Weather Hits Supply
Adverse weather across major producing nations is tightening pepper supply, with India's black pepper output sharply lower than the prior year.
Updated on Nov. 14, 2026 in Tea
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International Pepper Community estimated global pepper production at around 530,000 metric tonnes in 2026, down from 552,635 metric tonnes in 2025. Adverse weather in Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka and Cambodia is affecting yields.
Why it matters
Irregular weather patterns, largely linked to El Niño and climate change, are affecting pepper supply and cultivation costs across producing regions. The global pepper market is expected to remain relatively firm but increasingly sensitive to weather-related disruptions.
Vietnam exported about 237,700 metric tonnes of pepper from January to October 2026, valued at more than US$1.53 billion. As of November 2026, Brazilian black pepper traded near US$5,700 per metric tonne while Malaysian ASTA black pepper was priced at US$9,100 per metric tonne.
The players
International Pepper Community (IPC)
An intergovernmental body of pepper-producing and consuming countries that compiles global production estimates and holds an annual session on the pepper sector.
Karnataka Planters Association
A planters' body in India's Karnataka state, which produces roughly 60 percent of the country's pepper, that projected a 5 to 10 percent recovery in 2027 output.
The details
Estates in Karnataka, which produces roughly 60 percent of India's pepper harvest, have expanded drip irrigation to supply moisture during delayed pre-monsoon windows. Farmers across the region have adopted agronomic measures to cope with consecutive El Niño-linked dry spells and erratic monsoons.
Timeline
January to October 2026: Vietnam exports about 237,700 metric tonnes of pepper.
2024-2025: Indian black pepper output falls to 77,533 metric tonnes.
November 10 to 12, 2026: Cambodia Cashew and Pepper Trade Forum held in Phnom Penh.
November 30 to December 4, 2026: 54th IPC Annual Session scheduled in Bali, Indonesia.
January to February 2027: Karnataka harvest expected to begin.
Season Trajectory
The 2026 decline follows the drop in Indian black pepper output from 126,038 to 77,533 metric tonnes between 2023-2024 and 2024-2025, extending a pattern of weather-driven supply shortfalls. Whether 2027 brings the projected recovery will determine if the market stabilises or remains exposed to repeated weather shocks.
Shoppers buying black pepper or pepper-based products may face firmer prices as supply tightens across major producing countries. Households relying on imported pepper should expect price pressure to persist if the projected 2027 recovery is modest.
The takeaway
Global black pepper supply remains tightly tied to weather, so buyers and businesses should plan for continued price sensitivity even if output recovers modestly in 2027.
What happens next
The 54th IPC Annual Session takes place in Bali from November 30 to December 4, 2026, and Karnataka's harvest is expected to begin in January to February 2027.
Further reading
For more on how producing regions and markets are shaping food and drink supply, explore our Tea coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Star.
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