Evangelical Turnout Dips in Midterm Evangelical Hubs
Turnout in 343 evangelical hub counties reached 66 percent of its 2024 level, while surrounding counties reached 78 percent.
Updated on Nov. 14, 2026 in Christianity
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White evangelical turnout fell in the 2026 midterms compared with 2024 in evangelical hub counties, according to an analysis by the American Communities Project at Michigan State University. Republicans still carried these counties by 45 points, though Democratic margins grew.
Why it matters
The shift in turnout among a core Republican constituency is a notable data point for understanding the midterm results across 15 states with U.S. Senate races. Estimates of White evangelical share of voters vary by source, which complicates how much the change can be measured.
The analysis covers 343 evangelical hub counties, which are 52 percent White evangelical compared with 13 percent nationally. Exit poll and NORC estimates of the White evangelical share of 2026 voters range from 17 to 20 percent, and the sources do not fully reconcile.
The players
American Communities Project
A social science research lab at Michigan State University that studies community and demographic patterns across the United States.
The details
Researchers at the American Communities Project compared turnout in evangelical hub counties across 15 states against AP vote count data from 2024. Hub counties are concentrated in the Southeast, from Texas to Virginia, and went for Donald Trump by 62 points in 2024.
Timeline
2024: Presidential election used as the turnout baseline.
November 3, 2026: Midterm elections held with a Democratic wave.
November 14, 2026: Washington Post published the turnout analysis.
Culture Shift
Measured against the 2024 AP vote count baseline, the midterm turnout decline in evangelical hub counties signals a possible change in how this bloc participates across election cycles. The trend is still a single midterm comparison, so it does not yet establish a durable shift.
For voters in evangelical hub counties across the Southeast, the turnout data shows how participation changed in their own communities relative to 2024. Readers in other states can compare the reported figures against their own counties' results.
The takeaway
Turnout patterns in a single midterm can reveal shifts in how religious voting blocs engage with elections. Watching whether the decline persists in future cycles will show whether it marks a lasting change.
Further reading
Explore more on Christianity to see how religious communities are shaping voting patterns.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Washington Post.
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