El Niño Threatens Ivory Coast Cocoa Crop
Meteorologists warn the weather pattern could cut Ivory Coast cocoa output by up to 25%, pressuring global chocolate supply.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Consumer Goods
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Meteorologists warned that El Niño could reduce Ivory Coast cocoa production by up to 25%. Reduced supply could raise chocolate prices for U.S. consumers during holiday seasons.
Why it matters
Ivory Coast grows nearly 40% of the world's cocoa, so production shocks there ripple through global confectionery markets. Prices for cocoa products have already risen sharply in recent years.
Ivory Coast accounts for nearly 40% of global cocoa, and cocoa makes up 15% of its GDP. Confectionery prices rose 13.9% from December 2019 to November 2024, while cocoa products' PPI climbed 87.6%.
The players
Sodexam
Sodexam is Ivory Coast's weather tracking body, which is forecasting lower rainfall and hotter, drier conditions.
The details
Excess rain in 2023 spread cacao swollen shoot virus and black pod disease and delayed port deliveries, while hotter, drier weather in 2022 reduced bean size. Sodexam, Ivory Coast's weather tracking body, forecasts lower rainfall, hotter days and a drier season as El Niño develops.
Timeline
- December 2019 to November 2024: period of confectionery price increases tracked by the BLS
- 2021-2022: poorer weather conditions and reduced soil moisture in Ivory Coast and Ghana
- 2023: record rainfall in Ivory Coast triggered crop disease and port delays
- December 2026: El Niño expected to reach extreme levels
Market Landscape
Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together supply 50 to 60 percent of global cocoa, so weather shocks in these two countries shape supply for the entire world. Ghana's 2023-24 crop yield reached a 23-year low, showing the vulnerability is already present before El Niño arrives.
Holiday chocolate, candy and gum purchases could cost more if cocoa supply tightens as forecast. Shoppers may notice the effect most during Christmas, Valentine's Day and Easter, which account for about two-thirds of yearly confectionery sales.
The takeaway
Watching cocoa-producing regions' weather forecasts can offer early signals about future chocolate prices, so budgeting for seasonal treats may be worth planning ahead. Price changes are likely to lag the harvest, giving households some time to adjust.
Further reading
Explore more on Consumer Goods to see how commodity shocks reach everyday products.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Economic Times.
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