Jet Fuel Surge Pressures Global Airlines
Bloomberg Intelligence's George Ferguson warns high fuel prices and interest rates present a difficult period for the aviation industry.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Inflation
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Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the beginning of 2026, and Bloomberg Intelligence official George Ferguson said the global aviation industry faces a challenging period. Higher interest rates and borrowing costs are also weighing on consumer demand.
Why it matters
Rising fuel costs have significantly affected airlines' financial statements worldwide, and the pressure reaches beyond aviation into broader economic growth. Keeping fuel prices at current levels would likely slow global economic growth.
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of 2026, and the refining margin now accounts for about half of the final fuel price, according to data Ferguson presented at the AACO General Assembly in Doha. The US Treasury yield curve has risen to around 5 percent, and it remains unclear how long these pressures will last.
The players
George Ferguson
Ferguson is an official at Bloomberg Intelligence who analyzes the aviation and energy sectors.
Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence is the research arm of Bloomberg L.P. that publishes market and industry analysis.
Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, responsible for monetary policy and interest rate decisions.
The details
Ferguson presented data on jet fuel prices on the US Gulf Coast and the refining margin at the AACO General Assembly in Doha, based on third-quarter results from US airlines. Airlines worldwide face rising credit default swap costs, with the highest-risk US carriers suffering the most, and some could soon exit the market.
Timeline
Since the beginning of 2026, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled.
Third quarter 2026: US airline results were reported and US GDP grew 3.4 percent.
November 3, 2026: Ferguson presented at the AACO General Assembly in Doha.
Macro View
The jet fuel increase is measured against the US Gulf Coast benchmark, where the refining margin now drives roughly half the final price, a share that places pressure on refiners as well as airlines. Higher-for-longer rates, with the Treasury yield curve near 5 percent, compound this cost pressure on an industry already exposed to credit default swap costs.
Higher jet fuel costs are likely to push up airfares and ticket prices for travelers worldwide as airlines pass on expenses. Households may also feel the effect through higher prices for goods that depend on air freight, alongside elevated borrowing costs.
The takeaway
Fuel is a larger share of the price you pay for air travel than it was before the 2026 spike, so booking earlier and comparing fares across carriers can help offset costs. Watch how interest rates and fuel prices move together, since both shape travel and consumer spending.
Further reading
For broader context on how energy costs feed through to price levels, see Inflation.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Qatar News Agency.
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