South Africa Estimates 8.2 Million Living With HIV
Health Department figures show 2026 HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy uptake broken down by sex and province.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Sexual Health
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The National Department of Health has released estimated HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy (ART) figures by age, sex and province in response to a parliamentary question. For 2026, it estimates about 2.75 million males and 5.47 million females are living with HIV.
Why it matters
The figures show how many people living with HIV are receiving treatment in the public sector, a measure used to track the national response to the epidemic. Provisional provincial data will be reconciled with national estimates, so regional figures may change.
The figures are modelled national estimates from the Thembisa 5.0 model combined with public sector ART data, and exclude treatment delivered in the private sector. Data for 2010 and 2011 could not be aggregated nationally, and the 2026 figures remain provisional pending final validation.
The players
National Department of Health
The South African government department responsible for national health policy, which monitors the HIV epidemic through the Health Information Centre and routine health information systems.
The details
The Department of Health tabulated estimated people living with HIV by age band from 2010 to 2026 and public sector ART recipients from 2012 to 2026. Provincial breakdowns are drawn from a provincial model-derived dataset and are still to be reconciled with national estimates.
Timeline
2010-2026: Estimated people living with HIV tabulated by year.
2012-2026: Public sector ART recipients tabulated by year.
August 2026: Provincial figures due for reconciliation with national estimates.
Health Landscape
The estimates are produced with the Thembisa 5.0 model, the epidemiological framework the Department uses to track South Africa's HIV epidemic over time. The 2010-2026 series places the 2026 figures within a long-run record of infections and treatment coverage.
For people living with HIV, the figures indicate how widely antiretroviral treatment is available through the public health system, which is the main route to treatment for many. Those who receive care outside the public sector are not counted in the ART totals.
The takeaway
Public sector treatment figures are provisional for 2026, so the most current national and provincial numbers should be checked once validation is complete. Tracking treatment uptake alongside infection estimates shows how far the response reaches the people it is meant to serve.
Further reading
Explore more on Sexual Health in South Africa, including HIV prevention and treatment coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Pmg.
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