Climate Change Makes South African Heat Five Times Likelier
Climate Central analysis links November extreme heat across parts of South Africa to climate change, as a heatwave warning remains in place until Friday.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Severe Weather
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Climate Central found climate change made November heat in parts of South Africa at least five times more likely, with its Climate Shift Index reaching level five in Upington, Bloemfontein and Rustenburg. The South African Weather Service warned of a heatwave across North West, the Free State, southern Gauteng and north-eastern Northern Cape until Friday.
Why it matters
About 26 million people across South Africa were expected to experience at least one day of extreme heat, and the heat coincides with a very strong El Niño. Extremely high fire danger was also forecast across much of the Northern Cape, North West and Free State.
Temperatures of 36°C to 40°C were forecast in parts of the Northern Cape's Namakwa district and the Western Cape interior, 6°C to 10°C above normal for the season. The forecast affects about 660 000 km², roughly 54% of South Africa's land area.
The players
Climate Central
A US-based climate research and communications organisation that publishes the Climate Shift Index, a measure of how climate change affects weather events.
South African Weather Service
The national agency responsible for weather forecasting and issuing severe weather warnings across South Africa.
World Meteorological Organization
A specialised United Nations agency that coordinates international weather and climate monitoring, and which said the El Niño event is expected to be the strongest on record.
The details
Temperatures rose during the seasonal transition from spring to summer before sufficient atmospheric moisture arrived to bring widespread rain. Climate Central's Climate Shift Index was used to measure the influence of climate change on the extreme heat between 10 and 13 November.
Timeline
10-13 November 2026: Period of climate-influenced extreme heat forecast across South Africa.
Friday, 13 November 2026: Scheduled end of the South African Weather Service heatwave warning.
December 2026: The El Niño event is expected to be the strongest on record.
2027: Heat and extreme weather risks are expected to continue.
Seasonal Patterns
The heat is measured against Climate Central's Climate Shift Index, which quantifies how much more likely an event became because of climate change. Level five readings in Upington, Bloemfontein and Rustenburg place this November heat within that index's framework of attributable warming.
Residents in the North West, Free State, southern Gauteng and Northern Cape should monitor heatwave warnings through Friday and take precautions against heat exhaustion. Extremely high fire danger conditions mean residents should avoid open flames and follow local fire advisories.
The takeaway
Extreme heat is no longer just a seasonal risk in South Africa, as climate change is measurably increasing its likelihood during the spring-to-summer transition. Readers in affected provinces should plan for heat and fire danger well into 2027.
What happens next
The South African Weather Service heatwave warning is scheduled to end on Friday, 13 November 2026, and the El Niño is expected to peak as the strongest on record by December.
Further reading
For more on comparable events, see Severe Weather coverage across South Africa.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Mail & Guardian.
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