Study Models Relocating Crops to Climate-Suitable Regions

The Agricultural Research Council modelled moving 10 per cent of South African crop cultivation to areas with more favourable future climate conditions.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Organic Food

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of plain wooden crates shifting across a dry grassland ridge toward a green field beneath a wide sky. — South African researchers modelled relocating 10 percent of maize, wheat, citrus and avocado cultivation to newly suitable zones as climate conditions shift over 30 years. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

The Agricultural Research Council modelled relocating 10 per cent of current cultivation areas for maize, wheat, sorghum, citrus, avocado and macadamia nuts to newly suitable agroecological zones. The analysis assessed climate scenarios for 2030, 2055 and 2080, with costs and benefits calculated over 30 years.

Why it matters

The modelling suggests relocating some cultivation could generate economic and food-security benefits as climate conditions shift across South Africa. The Council also proposed a crop-suitability monitoring system to support agricultural investment and adaptation planning.

The modelled scenario relocates 10 per cent of current cultivation areas, with citrus showing an estimated benefit-cost ratio of about 1.50 and sorghum 1.41. Avocado and macadamia carry greater investment risk due to establishment costs and changing water availability, and the 10 per cent figure is an assumption rather than a recommendation.

The players

Agricultural Research Council

The Agricultural Research Council is South Africa's principal agricultural research body, conducting science on crops, livestock and natural resources.

The details

Researchers examined maize, wheat, sorghum, citrus, avocado and macadamia nuts, identifying potential cultivation areas in parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and the Free State. Benefit-cost calculations included farm income, employment, food security and export earnings.

2030: climate scenario assessed for crop suitability.
2055: climate scenario assessed for crop suitability.
2080: climate scenario assessed for crop suitability.
Costs and benefits assessed over a 30-year period.

Season Trajectory

The Agricultural Research Council's crop-suitability modelling extends its earlier climate-adaptation work into a scenario for relocating cultivation across 2030, 2055 and 2080. The approach frames relocation as an analytical option to be weighed against infrastructure, soil and market realities.

Relocation decisions depend on irrigation infrastructure, soil conditions, logistics and market access, which determine whether shifting crops is practical for individual growers. Citrus and sorghum show the most favourable modelled returns, while avocado and macadamia face higher establishment costs and water-availability risks.

The takeaway

Crop suitability is shifting with climate, and monitoring tools may help growers and investors plan adjustments over the coming decades. Any move of cultivation would need careful checks on water, soil and markets before proceeding.