South Africa Corn Output to Fall 19% in 2026-27

USDA forecasts planted area down nearly 12% as farmers cut risk ahead of a possible El Niño and rising input costs.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Agriculture

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of grain silos and a tall elevator before a corn field on open plains, evoking South Africa's smaller corn harvest. — The USDA forecasts South Africa's 2026-27 corn output will fall 19% to 14.9 million tonnes as farmers cut planted area nearly 12% amid El Niño risks and rising costs. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Do you expect food prices to rise over the next year?

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts South Africa's corn production to decline 19% to 14.9 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, down from a record 18.4 million tonnes in 2025-26. Planted corn area is expected to fall nearly 12% to 2.8 million hectares.

Why it matters

Farmers are reducing corn area ahead of a possible strong El Niño event and rising input costs, while the US-Iran conflict has limited shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The reduced crop also points to lower corn exports for the country.

The forecast is a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projection measured against the record 18.4 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26. Diesel prices are 65% above year-earlier levels, but the outcome for the 2026-27 season remains uncertain.

The players

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

The division of the United States Department of Agriculture that monitors and forecasts agricultural production and trade across countries worldwide.

The details

Farmers with on-farm storage are holding corn back from the market, while millers, traders and major food manufacturers have accumulated corn stocks in anticipation of El Niño-related losses. Some farmers are expected to shift planted area into sunflower seed.

2025-26: South Africa produced a record 18.4 million tonnes of corn.
2026-27: Forecast decline in corn output and planted area.

Market Landscape

The projected decline follows a record 2025-26 harvest of 18.4 million tonnes, marking a sharp reversal in South Africa's corn output. Lower exports of 2.5 million tonnes would reduce the country's share of global corn trade for the season.

Lower domestic corn supply and reduced exports could put pressure on feed and food-processing costs for South African consumers and producers. Farmers will need to weigh planting decisions against high diesel prices and possible El Niño conditions.

The takeaway

Farmers are managing risk by planting less corn and holding stocks, so the 2026-27 season will depend heavily on weather and input costs. Tracking the El Niño outlook and diesel prices will help clarify where supply and prices head next.