Oncor Expects 20% Capital Plan Increase
The Texas utility, majority-owned by Sempra, is set to boost its five-year base capital plan as load growth continues.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Utilities
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Oncor expects its five-year base capital plan, currently $47.5 billion, to increase by 20% in its upcoming annual update. The Texas utility serves more than 14 million customers and recently reached a new system peak of 33 GW, a 6% increase over the prior record.
Why it matters
The expected increase reflects continued customer and load growth across multiple sectors in Texas, signaling sustained infrastructure demand. Separately, Sempra's California utilities face wildfire liability uncertainty that analysts say could constrain future credit and service.
Oncor's $47.5 billion five-year base capital plan is expected to rise 20% in its next annual update, while its system peak reached 33 GW, up 6% over the prior record. The final revised plan figures have not yet been disclosed.
The players
Oncor
Oncor is a Texas electric utility serving more than 14 million customers and operating one of the largest transmission and distribution systems in the state.
Sempra
Sempra is a California-based energy infrastructure company and the majority owner of Oncor, with subsidiaries including San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas Co.
California Public Utilities Commission
The California Public Utilities Commission is the state agency that regulates investor-owned utilities and issued the proposed decision denying Sempra's petition.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings is a major credit rating agency that described California's failure to pass a wildfire liability bill as a significant adverse credit development.
The details
Oncor, which serves more than 14 million customers in Texas, attributes the expected capital increase to load growth from a variety of sectors. Sempra, Oncor's majority owner, discussed the capital plan on its third-quarter earnings call, while its California subsidiaries San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas Co. contend with wildfire liability risks tied to the January 2025 Eaton fire.
Timeline
January 2025: The Eaton fire occurred, with potential damages that could materially reduce or exhaust the Wildfire Fund.
2024: The California Public Utilities Commission issued a general rate case decision later challenged by Sempra.
September 2026: Fitch Ratings called the California legislature's failure to pass a wildfire liability bill a significant adverse credit development.
Last week: The CPUC issued a proposed decision denying Sempra's petition for modification.
Thursday, November 5, 2026: Sempra discussed the expected Oncor capital plan increase on its third-quarter earnings call.
Market Landscape
Oncor's expanding capital plan follows a sustained pattern of Texas load growth that has pushed the state's grid to repeated demand records. Sempra's California exposure, by contrast, reflects a separate regulatory and wildfire-liability pressure that has tightened credit conditions for its western utilities.
Texas electricity customers served by Oncor may see infrastructure spending rise as the utility expands to meet growing demand. Residents of California served by Sempra subsidiaries face uncertainty over wildfire liability costs that could affect future utility service and rates.
The takeaway
Utility spending is increasingly shaped by two forces at once: rapid load growth requiring new infrastructure and wildfire or regulatory risk that can strain credit. Watching how Oncor's capital plan and Sempra's California liability disputes resolve will show how both pressures are being balanced.
What happens next
Oncor's annual update will reveal the revised five-year capital plan, though no specific date for that release has been confirmed in the source material.
Further reading
For broader context on how grid demand is reshaping utility spending, explore the Utilities section.
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