Abbott Favored to Win Texas Governor Race
Prediction markets give Republican Greg Abbott a 60% chance against Democrat Gina Hinojosa ahead of the November 3 vote.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Data Centers
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Prediction markets show Governor Greg Abbott favored over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa in the Texas gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026. Kalshi traders give Abbott a 60% chance of winning a fourth term.
Why it matters
Hinojosa's odds have risen sharply since mid-July, as she campaigns on an immediate moratorium on data centers until the legislature sets guardrails. Abbott has grown more skeptical of data centers as voter opinion of them has soured, which makes the data center issue a central point in the race.
Kalshi traders give Abbott a 60% chance of winning, while Hinojosa's Kalshi odds rose from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday and her Polymarket odds rose from as low as 5% in late July to 39%. Final results will be determined by Texas Secretary of State data, and the market outcome remains uncertain until votes are counted.
The players
Greg Abbott
Greg Abbott is the Republican governor of Texas seeking a fourth term, and he has shifted toward skepticism of data centers as public opinion has soured.
Gina Hinojosa
Gina Hinojosa is a Democratic state representative running to become the first Democratic governor of Texas in more than 30 years, on a platform of an immediate data center moratorium.
Kalshi
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform where traders bet on the outcomes of real-world events, including elections.
Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction market platform that lets users trade on the probabilities of future events, including political races.
The details
In-person early voting concluded Friday, with more than 7.7 million Texans having cast ballots. Abbott ordered an audit of data centers seeking grid connection in August and in September halted approval of all data center-related permits until the existing waitlist is reviewed.
Timeline
November 2025: Abbott touted a $40 billion Google investment that included three new data centers.
August 2026: Abbott ordered an audit of data centers seeking to connect to the state's grid.
September 2026: Abbott halted approval of all data center-related permits pending the audit.
November 3, 2026: Texas voters decide the gubernatorial election.
Roadmap
Abbott's August 2026 audit of grid-connected data centers and his September permit freeze mark a reversal from his November 2025 touting of a $40 billion Google investment. The race now tests whether Texas voters will back a candidate promising an immediate data center moratorium over the incumbent's more cautious approach.
Texans' votes on November 3 will determine whether the state keeps its current data center permitting path or adopts Hinojosa's proposed moratorium. The result could affect electricity grid planning and the pace of new facilities in communities across the state.
The takeaway
The race shows that data center policy has become a voter issue in Texas, not just a business question. Readers tracking the outcome should watch how the audit and permit freeze shape the final weeks of campaigning.
What happens next
Voters go to the polls on November 3, 2026, and the outcome of the Texas gubernatorial election will be determined by Texas Secretary of State data.
Further reading
For more on the infrastructure fight behind the race, see Data Centers coverage across Texas.
Source note: This article includes information reported by CNBC.
Live Poll
Should Texas pause new data center construction until lawmakers set rules?
