New York City Will See Warmer Fall and Wetter Winter
Meteorologists forecast above-average temperatures and less snowfall for the city through the end of 2026.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Forecasts
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New York City is expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the fall of 2026. This trend will likely shift into increased precipitation and reduced snowfall as winter approaches.
Why it matters
The El Niño weather pattern is currently serving as the primary climate driver for these regional temperature and precipitation changes. This shift impacts local weather expectations as the Atlantic hurricane season continues through October.
Pacific sea surface temperatures reached record highs in August 2026, fueling the current El Niño system. This warming pattern historically influences global weather cycles by altering atmospheric conditions south of Hawaii.
The players
National Weather Service
This federal agency provides weather forecasts, warnings, and climate data for the United States.
The details
Rising temperatures in the Pacific are triggering shifts that make rain more likely than snow for the city in the coming months. These conditions remain in place as the region moves past the fall equinox and toward the end of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Timeline
August 2026: Record-high sea surface temperatures recorded in the Pacific.
August 2026 - October 2026: The Atlantic hurricane season remains active.
September 22, 2026: Date of the fall equinox.
October 2026: Potential timeframe for late-season hurricane activity.
Late fall 2026 - winter 2026: Expected period of above-average precipitation.
Seasonal Patterns
This forecast aligns with the cyclical nature of El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years. It highlights how Pacific Ocean temperature fluctuations dictate seasonal anomalies in major metropolitan areas like New York City.
Residents should prepare for a wetter late fall and winter season, which may increase the likelihood of local roadway flooding. Property owners should monitor the Atlantic hurricane season updates through the end of October to stay informed about potential storm risks.
The takeaway
The upcoming season will likely be defined by shifting precipitation types rather than traditional winter conditions. Residents should adjust their long-term expectations for snow-related travel disruptions and home maintenance requirements accordingly.
Further reading
Learn more about local climate trends in the Forecasts section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Gothamist.
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