Early Polar Vortex Breakdown Sends Cold Air South
Forecasters say Arctic air could bring rain and a possible wintry mix to New York ahead of Thanksgiving.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Forecasts
The polar vortex weakened earlier in November than any previously recorded breakdown, threatening to send Arctic air south during Thanksgiving week. A strong cold front is expected to sweep across New York around Thanksgiving Eve, bringing rain and a possible wintry mix.
Why it matters
The early breakdown means colder air may arrive sooner and more sharply than typical for late November, affecting holiday travel and weather preparation across New York State. Residents in the Hudson Valley and Catskills face the highest risk of wet snow, sleet, or a wintry mix.
The forecast relies on analysis of the polar vortex breakdown, which occurred earlier in November than any previously recorded. Exact precipitation totals and the precise position of the wintry mix boundary remain unresolved as the front approaches.
The details
A strong Super El Niño is underway, and Arctic air is pouring into the region following the polar vortex breakdown. The lower Hudson Valley and areas south of Interstate 287 are expected to see plain rain, while higher elevations across the mid-to-upper Hudson Valley and the Catskills face risks of wet snow, sleet, or a wintry mix.
Timeline
Early November 2026: Polar vortex weakened earlier than ever recorded.
Week of November 16, 2026: Temperatures forecast to climb into the low sixties.
Thanksgiving Eve, November 25, 2026: Strong cold front expected to sweep across the area.
Thanksgiving Day, November 26, 2026: Drastic temperature drop expected.
Black Friday, November 27, 2026: Drastic temperature drop expected to continue.
Seasonal Patterns
This early polar vortex breakdown is the earliest November disruption on record, departing from prior seasonal timing of Arctic air outbreaks. It places the Thanksgiving week cold snap ahead of the typical late-autumn pattern for New York State.
Residents in the Hudson Valley and Catskills should prepare for possible wet snow, sleet, or a wintry mix around Thanksgiving week. Those south of Interstate 287 should expect plain rain and plan travel accordingly.
The takeaway
Early and sharp shifts in the polar vortex can bring abrupt temperature changes, so checking forecasts closer to Thanksgiving is worthwhile for travel and outdoor plans across New York.
What happens next
Forecasters will continue tracking the cold front expected around Thanksgiving Eve, November 25, 2026, and the temperature drop anticipated on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.
Further reading
For more on how these conditions develop, see Forecasts for the state.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Wolf.
