Columbia Logs Third-Warmest October, Dry Spell Deepens

Mid-Missouri recorded half its normal October rainfall as drought expanded across much of the state.

Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Current Conditions

Wide landscape photograph of dry, cracked farmland with sparse tan grass and a lone dead tree under a hazy autumn sky. — Columbia recorded its third-warmest October on record at 64.9 degrees, with roughly half of normal rainfall expanding drought across Missouri. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Columbia, Missouri recorded its third-warmest October on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit, 7.4 degrees above normal. The month also brought roughly half of normal rainfall to Mid-Missouri, expanding drought across the state.

Why it matters

The warm, dry conditions have left Mid-Missouri with a rain deficit of 0.75 to 1 inch and have pushed much of Missouri into drought. Forecasters expect the pattern to persist as El Niño strengthens.

Columbia's October rainfall of 1.57 inches was less than half the 3.47-inch normal, with no rain recorded from October 17 through month end. Severe drought covers 34% of Missouri and extreme drought covers 16%, though the source does not indicate how long these conditions will last.

The details

Columbia averaged 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit in October, and only four days fell below normal temperature. Election Day rain totaled more than an inch from Versailles to Boonville and about a quarter to half an inch elsewhere in Mid-Missouri, offering partial relief.

October 2026: Third-warmest October on record and half-normal rainfall in Mid-Missouri.
October 17, 2026: Last measurable rain in Columbia before month end.
November 3, 2026: Election Day rain brings partial relief to the region.
November 11-17, 2026: Forecasts call for above-normal temperatures and a drier pattern.

Seasonal Patterns

The stalled jet stream and strengthening El Niño have kept Mid-Missouri warmer and drier than normal, a pattern forecasters say could peak at historic heights this winter. Columbia's third-warmest October on record fits within that broader seasonal drift rather than standing as an isolated anomaly.

Residents in drought-affected counties such as Camden, Pulaski, and Phelps should monitor water use as rainfall remains below normal. Forecasts of above-normal temperatures into mid-November mean outdoor water conservation may remain relevant through the coming weeks.

The takeaway

The region's warm, dry stretch is tied to a strengthening El Niño, so readers should expect drought conditions to persist into the coming weeks even as occasional rain arrives.