Orange County Economy Faces Slowdown in 2027 Forecast

Cal State Fullerton economists presented their outlook at the 32nd annual Orange County Business Council conference in Irvine.

Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Employment

Orange County Economy Faces Slowdown in 2027 Forecast

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Woods Center economists presented the 2027 economic forecast at the 32nd annual CSUF and Orange County Business Council conference, held October 22 at the Hyatt Regency Irvine. The outlook covered home prices, job growth, and the role of AI-related spending in California's economy.

Why it matters

Orange County payroll growth has hovered near 0% this year and its labor force sits 1.8% below pre-pandemic levels, while California's job growth since the pandemic trails the national average. Residents and businesses in the region face these trends alongside a home market that has shifted sharply since 2025.

California job growth since the pandemic is 3.1%, compared with the national average of 4.6%, and Orange County payroll growth has hovered near 0% this year. The forecast's full 2027 projections for the county are not detailed in the source material.

The players

Cal State Fullerton Woods Center

The Woods Center is the economic research arm of California State University, Fullerton, which hosted the forecasting conference.

Orange County Business Council

The Orange County Business Council is a regional business organization that co-hosted the annual economic conference with CSUF.

The details

Economists from Cal State Fullerton's Woods Center presented the forecast to attendees at the Hyatt Regency Irvine. AI accounted for 37% of California's GDP growth in 2025-26, and 30 of the world's 50 leading AI companies are based in the state.

August 2025: Orange County's median home price reached nearly $1.4 million.
February 2025: Orange County home prices began dropping, and have fallen 6.5% since.
October 22, 2026: The 32nd annual conference was held at the Hyatt Regency Irvine.

Market Landscape

The federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act is set to cut Medicaid funding nationwide, with California projected to lose $28.4 billion annually. That loss could push as many as 3.4 million state residents off Medi-Cal, reshaping the economic backdrop the forecast describes.

Orange County's home prices, down 6.5% since February 2025 after a 71% rise since 2019, shape household budgets and mortgage decisions. Flat payroll growth near 0% this year also affects job security for workers in the county.

The takeaway

Orange County residents should track local payroll and home price data over the coming year, since the region's job growth and housing costs are diverging from national trends. Those planning major purchases or career moves may benefit from reviewing the forecast's full projections.