CalRecycle Sets 1.03 Million Ton Plastic Baseline
California's regulator adopted a lower single-use plastic baseline than industry estimates, cutting the first required reduction target.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Environmental
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CalRecycle adopted a 1.03 million ton single-use plastic baseline on Monday, which is 20% lower than the June industry estimate of 1.29 million tons. Under the adopted figure, producers must cut 100,000 tons by the first target date instead of the 290,000 tons originally expected.
Why it matters
The lower baseline reduces the immediate reduction burden on plastic producers in California under Senate Bill 54, which Gov. Gavin Newsom signed in 2022. The lower figure stems from incomplete reporting, as not all producers have submitted data and some submitted reports were inaccurate.
The adopted baseline rests on reporting from only half of the Circular Action Alliance's member companies, with producers under $1 million in annual revenue excluded. CalRecycle will update the baseline annually through 2030 as complete data is gathered.
The players
CalRecycle
California's Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery, the state agency responsible for implementing the single-use plastic source reduction law.
Circular Action Alliance
An industry organization that writes the compliance plan for producers, reports their data to the state, and sets member recycling and reduction fees.
Gavin Newsom
The Governor of California who signed Senate Bill 54 into law in 2022.
The details
CalRecycle will work with the Circular Action Alliance to include data from all producers and update the baseline each year. The Alliance writes the industry plan for meeting the law's targets, reports producer data to the state and sets member recycling and reduction fees.
Timeline
2022: Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 54 into law.
2023: Reference year for single-use plastic production and sales.
June: Industry announced its initial 1.29 million ton baseline estimate.
Monday: CalRecycle adopted the 1.03 million ton baseline.
January 1: First 10% reduction target begins.
Big Picture
The baseline revision sits within California's Senate Bill 54 framework, which requires a 25% cut in single-use plastic sales by 2032. Lowering the starting baseline changes how that reduction schedule plays out for producers in its early years.
Plastic producers selling into California must cut 100,000 tons by the first target date rather than 290,000 tons, easing the early compliance burden. Consumers may see changes in packaging and product availability as producers adjust to the required reduction schedule.
The takeaway
Because the baseline depends on complete producer reporting, the eventual reduction burden may shift as annual updates through 2030 incorporate data from all companies.
What happens next
The first 10% reduction target takes effect on January 1, and CalRecycle will update the baseline annually through 2030.
Further reading
Explore more environmental coverage on California's plastic reduction efforts.
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