Gallego Predicts Democratic Gains in Arizona
Sen. Ruben Gallego forecasts Democrats will win control of the Arizona state House and Senate in the 2026 midterms.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Political Parties
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Sen. Ruben Gallego predicted Democrats will win control of the Arizona state House and Senate in the 2026 midterms, while also picking up congressional seats and the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general races. He made the prediction in an interview with KTAR News 92.3 FM on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Why it matters
Gallego said nonpartisan voters, who he described as the group that will decide the outcome, are disillusioned with the Trump administration over the cost of living, corruption, and the war in Iran. Republicans currently hold a numerical registration advantage in Arizona, making the prediction a test of whether that edge holds.
Arizona had 1,522,925 registered Republicans, 1,239,489 registered Democrats, and 1,612,413 voters registered with other parties or no affiliation. Gallego's forecast depends on nonpartisan voters, and the extraction gives no figure for how that group is expected to vote.
The players
Ruben Gallego
Gallego is a Democratic U.S. senator from Arizona who made the prediction about the state's 2026 midterm results.
The details
Gallego cited the cost of living, corruption, and the war in Iran, along with gas prices, as drivers of voter dissatisfaction. He expects the Arizona blue wave to be smaller than in other states, even as Democrats are projected to gain legislative and statewide offices.
Timeline
Tuesday, November 3, 2026: Midterm Election Day, when Gallego gave his prediction to KTAR News 92.3 FM.
Political Context
Gallego's forecast rests on the claim that nonpartisan voters are turning against the Trump administration over cost of living and the war in Iran. The extraction does not include the partisan counter-arguments or the positions of Arizona Republican officials on these points.
For Arizona voters, the prediction signals which offices and legislative chambers could change hands in November, affecting state policy on cost of living and government oversight. Nonpartisan voters, the group Gallego says will decide the outcome, have a direct stake in which party wins these races.
The takeaway
Nonpartisan voters are the variable Gallego says will decide Arizona's midterms, so tracking how that group votes will show whether the projected Democratic gains materialize.
Further reading
For more on how the state's voter blocs are shaping the race, see Political Parties in Arizona coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by KTAR.
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