Poll Shows Nez Leading Crane in Arizona Second District
New polling data highlights the competitive race between candidates Jonathan Nez and Eli Crane.
Updated on Oct. 22, 2026 in Elections
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An Emerson College poll reveals that Jonathan Nez leads Eli Crane 50 percent to 48 percent in the race for Arizona's Second District. This survey result falls within the margin of error.
Why it matters
The race remains tight as both candidates compete for support in a district that features significant independent voter turnout. These polling figures offer insight into the current political climate heading into the final stages of the election.
The Emerson College poll shows Jonathan Nez leading Eli Crane 50% to 48%, a result currently within the margin of error. Independent voters account for 172,519 of the registered population in Arizona's Second District.
The players
Jonathan Nez
Jonathan Nez is a candidate currently polling at 50 percent in Arizona's Second District congressional race.
Eli Crane
Eli Crane is a candidate in Arizona's Second District congressional race currently polling at 48 percent.
JoAnna Mendoza
JoAnna Mendoza is a candidate for Arizona's Sixth District projected to win by a 2-point margin.
Juan Ciscomani
Juan Ciscomani is a candidate in the Arizona's Sixth District race facing a 2-point projected deficit against JoAnna Mendoza.
The details
In a separate development, the Poliwave model projects a 2-point victory for JoAnna Mendoza over Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's Sixth District. This forecast is based on voter registration data including 190,536 Republicans, 161,699 Democrats, and 183,084 independent voters.
Timeline
Emerson College and Poliwave released polling and forecasting data on October 22, 2026.
Political Context
The reliance on voter registration data to project outcomes in Arizona follows trends established by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993. These models utilize the voter registry data maintained under federal compliance standards to calculate district-wide projections.
These polling trends indicate a highly competitive environment that may influence campaign spending and get-out-the-vote efforts in your local district. Residents should be prepared for increased political advertising and outreach activities leading up to election day.
The takeaway
Voters should consider that polling leads within the margin of error often signify a toss-up race regardless of current projections. Keeping track of independent voter participation is essential to understanding the final potential outcome in these districts.
Further reading
For more on upcoming races, visit Arizona Elections.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Gilavalleycentral.
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