Very Strong El Niño Forecast to Warm U.S. Winter

The National Weather Service reported a very strong El Niño on Nov. 12, 2026, with warmer winter temperatures expected in the Northwest.

Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Current Conditions

Very Strong El Niño Forecast to Warm U.S. Winter

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Are you changing your winter plans because of this year's strong El Niño?

The National Weather Service reported a very strong El Niño on Nov. 12, 2026, as Central Pacific equatorial sea-surface temperatures ran 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Forecasters expect the event to warm winter temperatures and dampen Northwest snowpacks.

Why it matters

Warmer winter temperatures can raise snow levels by 500 to 1,000 feet, affecting mountain snowpack that supplies water and winter recreation across the Northwest. The event also highlights how El Niño conditions shape regional weather patterns from year to year.

The data is National Weather Service sea-surface temperature measurement, with Central Pacific readings at 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal versus a 2-degree threshold for a very strong El Niño. What remains unresolved is how strongly the event will affect winter conditions, as its greatest impact is not expected until December through February.

The players

National Weather Service

The National Weather Service is the federal agency responsible for issuing weather forecasts and warnings across the United States, including monitoring of El Niño and La Niña conditions.

Climate Prediction Center

The Climate Prediction Center is a division of the National Weather Service that monitors equatorial sea-surface temperatures and issues seasonal climate outlooks for the United States.

The details

El Niño is graded on a three-month rolling average, and the Climate Prediction Center measures equatorial sea-surface temperatures to determine its strength. The event is expected to continue strengthening until early next year, with its greatest effects arriving in December, January and February.

1895: Earliest U.S. climate records in the dataset begin.
1950: Climate center El Niño records start.
1997: October-November-December record of 2.3 degrees Celsius set.
November 2015 to January 2016: Record 2.6 degrees Celsius three-month period set.
Nov. 12, 2026: National Weather Service reports a very strong El Niño.

Seasonal Patterns

This very strong El Niño is expected to challenge the 2.3 degrees Celsius October-November-December record set in 1997, with the Climate Prediction Center giving a 60% chance of breaking it. The comparison places the current event among the strongest seasonal sea-surface anomalies in the historical record.

Residents in the Northwest should expect warmer winter temperatures that could raise snow levels by 500 to 1,000 feet, which may reduce snowpack for winter recreation and water supply. Planning for milder winter conditions and monitoring official National Weather Service updates can help households prepare for changing snow and rain patterns.

The takeaway

Warmer winter conditions from a strong El Niño can shift precipitation from snow to rain in mountain areas, which affects water supply and seasonal planning. Tracking official National Weather Service forecasts through the winter can help you anticipate changes in local conditions.