Southern Plains Rainfall Eases Drought in October
October precipitation across the U.S. Southern Plains ran 150-400% of normal, easing drought by three to four categories.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Forecasts
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Precipitation across the U.S. Southern Plains exceeded 2 inches in October 2026, running 150-400% of normal, with central Oklahoma recording up to 8 inches. Drought in the region lessened by three to four categories during the month.
Why it matters
The heavy October moisture provided nearly ideal planting conditions for winter wheat in Kansas and offers potential for a production increase at next summer's harvest, comparable to 2016 and 2024. It follows a very dry spring that had starved the Southern Plains winter wheat crop.
October 2026 station data show Oklahoma City at 8.77 inches (264% of normal) and Wichita Falls, Texas at 5.54 inches (192% of normal). The source does not specify how far drought conditions will ease beyond the October reduction of three to four categories.
The players
DTN
DTN is an agricultural data and weather forecasting company whose precipitation forecasts for the Southern Plains were cited in the report.
The details
The 2026-27 Water Year began October 1, 2026, with precipitation exceeding 2 inches across much of the Southern Plains, while Lubbock, Texas recorded 3.48 inches (227% of normal). The moisture also supported planting of the 2026-27 Southern Plains winter wheat crop, and heavy mountain precipitation in the Colorado Rockies caused flooding.
Timeline
2016: Strong El Nino event; winter wheat production rose sharply.
2024: Strong El Nino event; winter wheat production rose sharply.
Spring 2026: Very dry spring starved the Southern Plains winter wheat crop.
October 2026: Heavy Southern Plains precipitation eased drought by three to four categories.
December 2026-February 2027: DTN forecasts 1-4 inches above-normal precipitation in the Southern Plains.
Seasonal Patterns
The October 2026 rainfall resembles the start to the winter wheat cycles of 2016 and 2024, both strong El Nino years that produced sharp increases in Southern Plains wheat output. Forecasts of above-normal precipitation into spring 2027 would extend that pattern if they hold.
Winter wheat growers in the Southern Plains benefit from the early moisture for planting, and agricultural planners should track the December-February precipitation forecast of 1-4 inches above normal. Residents in flood-prone mountain areas such as the Colorado Rockies should monitor local flood conditions as wet weather continues.
The takeaway
Early-season moisture can shape the next harvest, so growers and readers should watch whether the forecast December-February wetness materializes. Tracking monthly precipitation against normal gives the clearest sense of whether drought relief holds.
What happens next
DTN forecasts of above-normal precipitation for December-February and continued into spring 2027 will be tested as those months arrive.
Further reading
For related outlooks, see Forecasts coverage across the United States.
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