Polymarket Puts 40% Odds on 5.15% Five-Year Yield

A prediction market contract shows traders pricing a meaningful chance that the Treasury's five-year yield climbs to 5.15% before year-end.

Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Economic Indicators

Polymarket Puts 40% Odds on 5.15% Five-Year Yield

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As of 8:10 a.m. ET on Nov. 13, 2026, a Polymarket contract implied a 40% probability that the U.S. five-year Treasury yield reaches 5.15% by Dec. 31, 2026. The implied probability rose 30% over the preceding 24 hours.

Why it matters

The figure reflects trader expectations rather than a Treasury measurement, but it offers a real-time gauge of market sentiment about where longer-term U.S. borrowing costs may head. Shifts in the five-year yield feed into mortgage, auto loan and business financing rates.

The 40% figure is a Polymarket implied probability, not a Treasury measurement, and the contract settles on the Treasury's Daily Par Yield Curve 5-year entry. Whether the yield reaches the 5.15% threshold by Dec. 31, 2026 is not yet known.

The players

Polymarket

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events.

U.S. Department of the Treasury

The U.S. Department of the Treasury is the federal agency responsible for managing government finances and publishing the daily yield curve rates used as the contract's settlement benchmark.

The details

The contract resolves Yes if the Treasury's daily five-year yield reaches 5.15% or higher from market creation through Dec. 31, 2026, and settles as soon as that threshold is met. It resolves No if no qualifying reading is published by 11:59 p.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2027, using the Treasury Department's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.

Nov. 13, 2026, 8:10 a.m. ET: implied probability recorded at 40%
Preceding 24 hours: implied probability rose 30%
Dec. 31, 2026: contract window for reaching the 5.15% threshold closes
Jan. 14, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET: deadline for qualifying publication before a No resolution

Macro View

The contract's settlement rests on the Treasury Department's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, the official daily series for the five-year yield. Traders are pricing the chance of a move to 5.15% against that published benchmark, which makes it a forward-looking read on the same numbers economists track.

Five-year Treasury yields influence the rates on some fixed-rate loans and business borrowing costs. A contract pricing a 40% chance of a 5.15% yield does not itself change any consumer rate, but it signals where traders expect those costs could move.

The takeaway

Prediction market odds can offer a quick read on expectations, but they are not official data. Track the Treasury's own published yield rates when you need the figure that actually settles these contracts.