Catholic Voters Shift Toward Democrats in Midterms
Initial NBC News exit polls found Catholic voters split nearly evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Catholicism
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NBC News exit polls found 50% of self-identified Catholic respondents supported Democrats and 49% supported Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. As of Nov. 9, Democrats were projected to win 259 House seats to Republicans' 176.
Why it matters
The shift follows Catholic voters' 2024 support for Donald Trump at 55%, while Pew Research Center found Trump's approval among Catholics fell from 47% at the start of his second term to 30% in October 2026. Catholic leaders objected to some immigration policies Trump implemented.
Exit polls show Catholic respondents nearly evenly divided at 50% for Democrats and 49% for Republicans, down from Trump's 55% Catholic vote in 2024. The data reflects a single election cycle and does not yet show whether the shift will persist.
The players
Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton is a Texas politician who lost the 2026 U.S. Senate general election to James Talarico.
The details
Democrats picked up Senate seats in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa, and won House races in North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton by 13 points.
Timeline
October 2026: Pew survey recorded Trump's Catholic approval at 30%.
Nov. 3, 2026: Midterm elections held, with exit polls showing the Catholic shift.
Nov. 9, 2026: House projections reached 259 Democratic and 176 Republican seats.
Jan. 3, 2027: Members of the 120th Congress are scheduled to be sworn in.
Seasonal Patterns
The 2026 exit polls show Catholic voters moving from Trump's 55% share in 2024 toward a near-even split, a departure from the 2024 baseline. Pew's October 2026 approval figure of 30%, down from 47% at the start of Trump's second term, traces the same decline.
Catholic voter preferences show the election may bring different political priorities to Congress, with Democrats holding a 259-seat House majority as of Nov. 9. Members of the 120th Congress are scheduled to be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027, when new policy directions could take shape.
The takeaway
Catholic voters are not a monolith, and the near-even exit poll split suggests their voting behavior shifted notably from 2024. Following Pew's approval tracking and the seat totals in the 120th Congress will show whether the change holds.
Further reading
Explore more on Catholicism for background on the faith community at the center of this election shift.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Pilot.
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