Waller Backs December Rate Hike Ahead of CPI

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he would support a rate increase in December even if inflation improves from September levels.

Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Inflation

Waller Backs December Rate Hike Ahead of CPI

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Federal Reserve Governor Waller said he would support a rate hike in December even if CPI improves relative to September, and that he would back a 0.5% increase if Core CPI month-over-month comes in at 0.3% or higher. Bitcoin traded under pressure ahead of the U.S. CPI report.

Why it matters

Waller's conditional stance signals that a larger-than-expected Fed move is possible, which traders are weighing against the outlook for growth. A more hawkish Fed without an end to the Iran conflict is expected to weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Waller's conditional support hinges on Core CPI month-over-month reaching 0.3% or higher, with 0.5% as the proposed hike size. Year-over-year CPI figures are not being released because of last year's government shutdown, leaving the monthly reading as the key signal.

The players

Christopher Waller

Federal Reserve Governor who stated support for a December rate hike conditional on inflation readings.

Donald Trump

President of the United States, who said the U.S. is ready for strikes on Iran if necessary and reported positive talks with Qatar's prime minister.

The details

Waller said he would support a December hike even if CPI improves relative to September, and would vote for 0.5% if Core CPI month-over-month reaches 0.3% or higher. Traders are watching the Core CPI reading as a signal on the size of any potential Fed move, while Bitcoin approaches a major upward trendline on the daily chart after repeated rejections near 76,000.

U.S. CPI report released November 10, 2026
U.S. jobless claims released November 11, 2026
U.S. PPI data released November 13, 2026
Possible Fed rate hike in December 2026

Macro View

Waller's conditional stance mirrors the Federal Reserve's practice of tying rate decisions to Core CPI monthly readings rather than headline annual figures. The absence of year-over-year CPI data during the shutdown forces markets to rely on monthly Core CPI as the decisive indicator.

A December rate hike of 50 basis points would raise borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for many households. Consumers with variable-rate debt should expect higher monthly payments if the Fed moves as Waller has signaled.

The takeaway

Watch the Core CPI month-over-month reading, since it is the threshold Waller has tied to a larger rate hike. Households with variable-rate loans should plan for the possibility of higher payments if the Fed raises rates in December.

What happens next

The U.S. CPI report on November 10, 2026 will provide the Core CPI month-over-month reading that Waller tied to his hike support, and a possible Fed hike is under consideration for December 2026.