Farm Equipment Growth Set to Slow in 2027
Stantec economists forecast muted expansion for farm equipment manufacturing next year as farmers hold back on capital spending.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Agriculture
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Farm equipment manufacturing volume is growing 9.2% year-over-year, but Stantec economists project growth will decelerate and remain muted in 2027. The farm capital investment index sits below 100, signaling farmers are not currently inclined to invest.
Why it matters
Farmers do not view the present as a good time for capital investment, even as they expect to need higher output next year. Because the investment index leads equipment production by about eight months, the slowdown in buying could shape manufacturing plans well into 2027.
Farm equipment production volume is up 9.2% year-over-year, but the farm capital investment index sits below the 100 threshold, which leads production by about eight months. Corn and soybean prices, which lead equipment manufacturing by about three months, are currently accelerating, though the exact 2027 growth rate remains a forecast.
The players
Stantec
Stantec is a global engineering, architecture, and consulting firm whose economists produced the farm equipment manufacturing forecast.
The details
Stantec economists projected industry growth by shifting interest rates forward 24 months and inverting the series, then compared the farm capital investment index against equipment production volume to identify lead timing. Their analysis suggests farm equipment production is heading toward an upcoming peak, with growth expected to slow in 2027.
Timeline
2026: Current year of farm equipment manufacturing growth and investment decisions.
2027: Forecast year when industry growth is expected to be muted and decelerate.
Market Landscape
Economists are using the farm capital investment index's documented eight-month lead over equipment production to anticipate when the manufacturing cycle will turn. The current sub-100 reading places the 2027 slowdown within a sector where farmer purchasing decisions drive manufacturer output.
Farmers weighing equipment purchases face a sub-100 investment reading that signals a weaker buying climate heading into 2027. Those planning upgrades may find manufacturing growth slowing as the cycle matures.
The takeaway
Watch the farm capital investment index as an early signal: when it moves back above 100, equipment production typically follows about eight months later. Farmers and investors can use that lead time to plan around the forecast slowdown.
Further reading
Explore more on the Agriculture section for context on the farm economy and equipment markets.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Farm Equipment.
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