Ag Economy Barometer Falls to 117 in March

Farmer sentiment dropped eight points as rising interest rates and weaker crop prices weighed on producers' outlook.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Agriculture

Ag Economy Barometer Falls to 117 in March

Live Poll

Do you think now is a good time to make large purchases given rising interest rates?

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 8 points to 117 in March, based on a telephone survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers conducted March 13-17. The Current Conditions Index and Future Expectations Index both declined to 126 and 113, respectively.

Why it matters

Rising interest rates and weaker prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans from mid-February through mid-March were key factors behind the lower sentiment reading. The shift signals mounting financial pressure on U.S. farm operations heading into the growing season.

Producers' top concerns were higher input costs, cited by 34%, and rising interest rates, cited by 25%, while the Farm Capital Investment Index fell one point to 42. The Long-Term Farmland Value Index rose five points to 142, but it is not yet clear whether that gain will hold as short-term values fell six points to 113.

The players

Purdue University

A public research university in Indiana whose agricultural economics program co-produces the Ag Economy Barometer with CME Group.

CME Group

The Chicago-based derivatives exchange that operates major agricultural futures markets and partners with Purdue on the monthly barometer.

The details

Respondents were asked open-ended questions about their expectations for the year ahead, and input costs and interest rates emerged as the dominant worries. Forward-looking responses showed 39% expecting renewable diesel to raise soybean prices by up to $0.50 per bushel over five years, while 46% expect that industry to be larger in five years.

March 13-17, 2026: Telephone survey of 400 agricultural producers conducted.
Mid-February through mid-March 2026: Weaker commodity prices contributed to lower sentiment.
Last summer: Peak concern about higher input costs, cited by 53% of respondents.

Market Landscape

The short-term farmland value index has fallen to 113, approaching its weakest prior reading recorded in September 2020 in the Purdue/CME series. Producers are weighing that trend against the long-term farmland value index, which rose five points to 142 in March.

Farm operators facing higher input costs and borrowing rates may need to reassess operating budgets and capital investment plans for the coming season. Producers weighing farmland purchases or sales should note that short-term land values have softened even as long-term values remain elevated.

The takeaway

Monitoring input costs and interest rate trends can help farm operators plan cash flow more realistically over the coming months. Tracking the monthly barometer alongside local lending conditions offers a practical view of where sentiment is heading.