Businesses Place Holiday Orders at Last Minute

U.S. companies delayed inventory purchases over tariff costs and uncertain consumer demand, straining warehouse space.

Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Spending

Businesses Place Holiday Orders at Last Minute

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U.S. businesses placed holiday inventory orders at the last minute in November 2026, making warehouse space harder and more expensive to obtain. Adobe forecasts consumers will spend about $275.1 billion over the holiday season, a 6.7% year-on-year increase.

Why it matters

Businesses delayed ordering because tariffs make early inventory more expensive, and they waited to see whether consumers would show up after the U.S. and Israel started a war with Iran. Overcrowded warehouses could leave companies stuck with excess inventory they cannot sell during the holidays.

The Logistics Managers' Index shows inventory growth this month was the highest since 2022, while warehouse storage prices had their fastest growth since that year. Adobe forecasts holiday spending of about $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year on year, but whether consumers deliver that spending remains unclear.

The players

Adobe

Adobe is a major software company whose analytics division publishes consumer spending forecasts for the retail sector.

Logistics Managers' Index

The Logistics Managers' Index is a monthly survey of supply chain and logistics managers that tracks inventory levels, warehousing costs and transportation trends across the U.S. economy.

The details

Businesses began weighing holiday inventory orders in early 2026 but delayed placing them to avoid paying tariffs early. The resulting rush of orders in November has pushed up demand for warehouse space and its cost.

Early 2026: businesses began considering holiday inventory orders.
November 2026: inventory growth reached its highest level since 2022.
Holiday season 2026: consumers are expected to spend about $275.1 billion.

Market Dynamics

The Logistics Managers' Index recorded its highest monthly inventory growth since 2022 in November 2026, following the post-2022 pattern of rising warehousing costs. Tariff policy and the U.S.-Israel war with Iran are shaping how companies time their purchases in this cycle.

Holiday shoppers may see the expected $275.1 billion in consumer spending reflected in product availability and pricing this season. Warehouse congestion and tariff-driven costs could also influence what retailers stock and what they charge.

The takeaway

Households planning holiday budgets should expect retail pricing and inventory to reflect the shifting tariff and warehousing environment this season. Watching how consumer spending tracks against Adobe's forecast will show whether businesses' late ordering was justified.