US Copper Output Faces Slow Revival

JPMorgan estimates new US copper supply could reach about 1.3 million tonnes a year as projects gain faster permitting.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Manufacturing

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US mined copper output has fallen about 50% over 30 years to roughly 1 million tonnes, and JPMorgan has raised its estimate of potential new domestic supply to about 1.3 million tonnes a year. The bank rated Freeport-McMoRan overweight on its brownfield growth potential.

Why it matters

A focus on securing critical minerals supply is reviving US copper investment, with the FAST-41 permitting reforms helping accelerate projects that previously faced lengthy approval processes. The United States' share of global mined copper output has dropped from about 50% in 1900 to below 5%.

Freeport-McMoRan has more than 250,000 tonnes a year of potential brownfield growth, while the Rio Tinto and BHP Resolution joint venture, with stakes of 55% and 45%, accounts for nearly 50% of the US copper project pipeline. Most of this capacity is not expected to arrive until after 2030.

The players

JPMorgan

JPMorgan is a major US global investment bank whose commodities research shapes market views on metals supply.

Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport-McMoRan is a large US mining company operating major copper mines, including in the Americas and Indonesia.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is a multinational mining company headquartered in London and Melbourne with major copper and iron ore operations.

BHP

BHP is a global mining company based in Melbourne and one of the world's largest copper producers.

The details

In-situ leaching and the restarting of older mines are helping drive supply growth, while the US ranks third globally for potential copper additions, behind Chile and Argentina. Regulatory reforms such as FAST-41 are shortening permitting timelines for projects that once stalled for years.

Over the past 30 years, US mined copper output fell about 50%.
In 1900, the US held about 50% of global mined copper output.
Most US copper capacity is expected to come online after 2030.
A final investment decision on Resolution is not expected before 2030.

Market Landscape

The copper revival comes as US supply has shrunk to below 5% of global mined output, far behind Chile and Argentina in potential additions. The FAST-41 permitting law is the policy lever now being used to close that gap.

Faster copper projects could eventually ease supply pressure on wiring, electrical equipment, and construction costs that depend on the metal. Most of the added supply is not expected until after 2030, so near-term price effects for consumers are likely limited.

The takeaway

US copper supply recovery is real but slow, with most new capacity arriving after 2030. Readers tracking manufacturing costs or energy infrastructure should watch permitting progress under FAST-41 as the key signal.