Texas, Oklahoma Races Could Decide Congress
Competitive contests in Texas and Oklahoma may help determine which party controls the House and Senate after the November election.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Elections
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All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on November 3, 2026. Texas and Oklahoma together hold 43 House seats and two Senate seats, and results there could help decide control of Congress.
Why it matters
Republicans hold a 53-to-47 Senate majority and a narrow House edge, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to flip control. Winning one chamber would let Democrats block Republican bills, and winning both would give them control of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control, compared with Republicans' 53-to-47 Senate majority and narrow House edge. Recent polls show Democrat James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, but the race remains tight and the final outcome is unresolved.
The players
Ken Paxton
Republican attorney general of Texas facing a tight Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
James Talarico
Democratic Texas state representative running in a close Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton.
Kevin Hern
Republican U.S. representative from Oklahoma and the favorite for that state's open Senate seat.
Donald Trump
Current President of the United States, whose term's final two years would be affected by which party wins Congress.
The details
Texas is one of a dozen Senate races that could decide control of the chamber, with Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico in a close contest. In Oklahoma, U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern is the favorite for the open Senate seat.
Timeline
November 3, 2026: Election day, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot.
Seasonal Patterns
The 2026 midterms follow the pattern set by the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won House control during Trump's first term and midterm results shaped the final years of his presidency. Control of Congress again turns on a small number of competitive races in states like Texas and Oklahoma.
Control of Congress affects which bills can pass, since a Democratic chamber could block Republican legislation. Voters in Texas and Oklahoma will decide these races on November 3, 2026, and the outcome will shape federal policy through the rest of Trump's term.
The takeaway
Because Congress is closely divided, a handful of races in states like Texas and Oklahoma may determine whether one party can pass its agenda. Voters in those states have an outsized effect on the national balance of power.
Further reading
For more on the races shaping the balance of power, explore the latest Elections coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Kxii.
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