Skubal Eyes Record Pitcher Contract This Winter
Two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal hits free agency, with analysts projecting a deal that could top existing pitcher records.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Baseball
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Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner, hits free agency this winter and is expected to break the record for the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history. The current benchmark is Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million contract signed ahead of the 2024 season.
Why it matters
A Skubal deal would reset the market for top starting pitchers in a season when MLB owners are pursuing spending restraint in ongoing CBA negotiations. Those talks will shape the environment in which his free agency unfolds.
Analysts project Skubal's total contract between $325.5 million and $400 million, versus the pitcher record of $325 million held by Yamamoto. Mike Axisa's projection of $46.5 million per year would exceed the $43.33 million average annual value shared by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, though final terms remain unannounced.
The players
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal is a pitcher who has won the American League Cy Young Award twice and is now a free agent.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a Japanese pitcher whose 12-year, $325 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers set the record for highest total contract value for a pitcher.
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani is a two-way Japanese star whose 10-year, $700 million contract holds the highest average annual value in MLB history at $70 million per year.
The details
CBS Sports experts have made contract predictions for Skubal, with Mike Axisa forecasting seven years and $325.5 million, Dayn Perry forecasting eight years and $350 million, and Matt Snyder forecasting eight years and $400 million with opt-outs after years three and five. Skubal's free agency will be shaped by the ongoing CBA negotiations.
Timeline
2024 season: Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed his 12-year, $325 million contract.
This winter: Tarik Skubal hits free agency.
Market Landscape
Skubal's projected deals would test the pitcher pay ceiling set by the records of Yamamoto and Scherzer-Verlander, while still sitting well below Shohei Ohtani's record $70 million average annual value. The gap between pitcher and position-player top salaries will remain a central theme of this free-agent class.
Skubal's landing spot will determine rotation strength for his new club and reshape fantasy baseball draft values for the upcoming season. The eventual contract length and opt-out structure will also affect how long his next team is committed to his salary.
The takeaway
Skubal's contract will be a key benchmark for how MLB values elite starting pitching amid the current CBA talks. Readers tracking free agency should watch both his final terms and how owners' spending priorities play out.
Further reading
Explore more Baseball coverage for context on how free-agent pitcher contracts are shaping the sport.
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