Severe Storms to Strike Plains, Midwest Monday

A strong trough moving out of the Rockies is forecast to trigger severe storms across the Plains and Midwest, with heavy rain possible in the South.

Updated on Oct. 31, 2026 in Forecasts

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of a single dark storm cloud rising over a flat plains horizon, symbolizing a forecast of severe weather. — A strong storm system is forecast to bring severe storms, including tornadoes and hail, to the Plains and Midwest on Monday, with heavy rain possible in the South. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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A strong trough moving out of the Rockies on Monday is expected to form a surface low and cold front, triggering severe storms across the Central and Southern Plains and Midwest. Forecasters say cold air diving south will meet warm, moist Gulf air, with all modes of severe weather, including hail, wind, and tornadoes, possible.

Why it matters

The setup of cold air meeting warm, moist Gulf air creates conditions favorable for severe weather across a wide swath of the country. Residents along the storm corridor should monitor forecasts as conditions could change over the coming days.

The National Weather Service has issued a slight risk outlook covering the Central and Southern Plains, with a marginal risk reaching the Rio Grande. Specific storm intensity and exact impact locations remain unresolved as the system develops.

The details

A surface low and cold front are forming as the trough moves out of the Rockies, with isolated severe storms possible Sunday in New Mexico and far western Texas. Severe storm chances ramp up from Oklahoma City to Kansas City Monday afternoon, and a squall line is expected to develop in Texas Monday evening before dropping across the state into Tuesday morning.

Sunday: Isolated severe storms possible in New Mexico and far western Texas.
Monday: A strong trough moves out of the Rockies, forming a surface low and cold front.
Monday afternoon: Severe storm chances ramp up from Oklahoma City to Kansas City.
Monday evening: Storms expected to develop in Texas, forming a squall line.
Tuesday morning: The squall line drops across Texas into the morning hours.

Seasonal Patterns

The slight and marginal risk categories used in this outlook follow the National Weather Service's standard severe weather tiers for convective storms. Placing this system against those tiers shows it is a moderate-scale event rather than a high-risk outbreak forecast.

Residents across the Plains and Midwest should monitor local forecasts and be prepared for hail, damaging wind, and possible tornadoes Monday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain is expected to shift east toward the South and Central Gulf on Tuesday, so plan travel accordingly.

The takeaway

Monitoring forecasts through the day is the most reliable way to track how this system develops, since storm timing and intensity can shift as the trough moves. Having a way to receive weather alerts can help you respond quickly if warnings are issued for your area.

What happens next

Severe storm chances are expected to peak Monday afternoon and evening before the squall line moves east toward the South and Central Gulf on Tuesday.