California to Lose Residents as Texas Population Grows

New projections indicate hundreds of thousands of residents will move away from California by 2050.

Updated on Oct. 29, 2026 in Regional Economics

California to Lose Residents as Texas Population Grows

Live Poll

Would you consider moving to a different state to find more affordable housing and living costs?

Between 2025 and 2050, California is projected to lose 760,000 residents as migration patterns shift. Meanwhile, Texas is forecasted to gain 10.4 million new residents by 2050.

Why it matters

Higher costs of living and business environments drive residents to relocate to other states. Texas, in particular, attracts new arrivals due to lower housing costs and the absence of state income tax.

Projections show Illinois and New York will lose 1.4 million and 989,000 residents respectively by 2050, while Florida and North Carolina are expected to gain 7 million and 2 million residents. In 2023, over 100,000 Californians moved to Texas.

The players

California

This state is projected to be a primary source of population loss over the next three decades.

Texas

This state is identified as a primary destination for individuals migrating due to economic factors.

The details

Individuals often identify relocation opportunities through peer influence on social media. One of every five people who moved from California to Texas in 2023 originated from Los Angeles.

In 2014, 58,109 Gen Z adults left California.
The 2020-2021 period saw a rapid migration pace.
Over 100,000 Californians moved to Texas in 2023.
California population decline is projected between 2025 and 2050.

Macro View

This story follows the precedent set by the 2014 Gen Z migration patterns by tracking how demographic shifts continue to favor states with lower tax burdens. Current trends mirror historical cycles where residents move from high-cost coastal states toward more affordable interior regions.

Shifting populations can influence local housing affordability and the demand for services in both departing and destination regions. Residents may see changes in their local cost of living as migration continues to alter regional demographics.

The takeaway

Economic pressures like state income taxes and housing costs remain primary drivers for long-term domestic migration. Understanding these demographic forecasts can help individuals better plan their future career and housing decisions.